Is Carnival Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
Carnival (CCL) stock is down 6.8% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around cautious management outlook, macroeconomic headwinds, and elevated Caribbean capacity, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Carnival stands today.
- Size: Carnival is a $33 Bil company with $26 Bil in revenue currently trading at $24.76.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 7.1% and operating margin of 16.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.86 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03
- Valuation: Carnival stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 12.3 and P/EBIT multiple of 7.9
- Has returned (median) 7.9% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See CCL Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Risky. For details, see Buy or Sell CCL Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is CCL stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose CCL stock falls another 20-30% to $17 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- CCL stock fell 79.6% from a high of $31.31 on 2 June 2021 to $6.38 on 10 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 August 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $32.49 on 28 August 2025 , and currently trades at $24.76
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -79.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1051 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CCL stock fell 84.6% from a high of $51.90 on 17 January 2020 to $7.97 on 2 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -84.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CCL stock fell 44.2% from a high of $71.94 on 29 January 2018 to $40.13 on 8 October 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -44.2% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CCL stock fell 70.7% from a high of $51.33 on 9 October 2007 to $15.02 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 July 2015
| CCL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -70.7% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2426 days | 1480 days |
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