How Long Should You Wait For Carnival Stock To Recover?
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Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock set its high in January 2018 and trades today at less than half that price. If you own the shares, you may still judge every move against that old close, treating the peak as where Carnival belongs and the years since as a mere detour. So what would it take for Carnival stock to get back there?
Carnival Stock Needs A 143.1% Gain To Get Back
Because Carnival stock now sits 58.9% below its high of January 2018, the shares need a 143.1% gain to return to that level. Even if the climb took three years, it would require a 34.5% annual return.
Has Carnival Stock Ever Gained 143.1% In Three Years?
Yes, but seldom. Look at every three-year stretch of 756 trading sessions in the last ten years, with one stretch starting on each trading day: Carnival stock gained 143.1% or more in 13.5% of those periods. The shares will need a rare feat to get back to their old high within three years.
What Has Waiting Cost Carnival Holders?
The wait for Carnival’s old high has now lasted 8.8 years. Over those years, Carnival stock is down 58.9% before dividends, while the S&P 500 is up 157.7% before dividends. Waiting has cost Carnival holders more than the fall itself, because it has also cost them the rise they would have enjoyed in the wider market.
Is Carnival The Same Business It Was Then?
Measured by size and profit, Carnival today is a larger company than the one that set the January 2018 high.
| Carnival Corporation | At the high, January 2018 | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $71.94 | $29.59 |
| Business figures: twelve months ended | 2017-11-30 | 2026-08-31 |
| Revenue, twelve months | $17.5 billion | $27.6 billion |
| Operating margin | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| Net income, twelve months | $2.61 billion | $3.14 billion |
Share prices are split-adjusted closes on January 29, 2018 and November 5, 2026. Business figures are as reported, for the twelve months to the latest fiscal quarter in our data on or before each date.
Carnival sells cruises through brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess and Cunard, with its North America and Europe segments bringing in most of its sales. Over the twelve months to August 2026, revenue stood 57.6% higher than in fiscal 2017, the year that ended just before the high. The operating margin barely moved at 16.0% against 16.6%, and net income rose.
The business as a whole is bigger and earns more, yet the stock remains far below its old high. Those figures represent company-wide totals, however, rather than what each individual share earns. The better question for Carnival holders is not when the stock will get back to its January 2018 high, but what the business Carnival runs today is worth at 12.8 times its last twelve months of earnings.
The same goes for your portfolio. The better question is how to invest so you’re fine either way.
Does This Mean You Should Act On CCL?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
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