Which Stock Will Rally: Marriott Vacations Worldwide or Carnival?
Even as Carnival fell -9.1% during the past Day, its peer Marriott Vacations Worldwide may be a better choice. Consistently evaluating alternatives is core to sound investment approach. Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Carnival (CCL) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in VAC
- VAC’s quarterly revenue growth was 9.3%, vs. CCL’s 3.3%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 7.7%, ahead of CCL’s 7.1%.
- VAC’s 3-year average margin is stronger: 12.9% vs. CCL’s 10.8%.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Quiz time: Over the last 5 years, which index do you think the Trefis High Quality Portfolio outperformed — the S&P 500, the S&P 1500 Equal Weighted, or both? The answer might surprise you. See how our advisory framework helps stack the odds in your favor.
CCL operates leisure cruise travel to around 700 ports globally through multiple brands, serving markets in the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and beyond. VAC operates vacation ownership, exchange networks, membership programs, and management services across 120 properties in the U.S. and 13 other countries.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| CCL | VAC | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 8.0 | 3.9 | VAC |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 3.3% | 9.3% | VAC |
| Last 12 Months | 7.1% | 7.7% | VAC |
| Last 3 Year Average | 45.9% | 5.3% | CCL |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 16.4% | 11.6% | CCL |
| Last 3 Year Average | 10.8% | 12.9% | VAC |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 190.1% | -47.1% | CCL |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: CCL Revenue Comparison | VAC Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: CCL Operating Income Comparison | VAC Operating Income Comparison
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell VAC Stock to see if Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s edge holds up under the hood or if Carnival still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell CCL Stock).
Historical Market Performance
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| CCL Return | -57% | -7% | -60% | 130% | 34% | 5% | -43% | ||
| VAC Return | 7% | 24% | -19% | -35% | 10% | -22% | -42% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 112% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| CCL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 47% | ||
| VAC Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 40% | 41% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | 64% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| CCL Max Drawdown | -84% | -24% | -68% | -1% | -25% | -34% | -40% | ||
| VAC Max Drawdown | -71% | -11% | -32% | -45% | -18% | -43% | -37% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/4/2025 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read VAC Dip Buyer Analyses and CCL Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.
Whatever your view on either of these stocks, investing in one or two stocks remains a risky proposition. Instead, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.