What Would You Have Needed To Notice In Caterpillar Stock?
Caterpillar (CAT) stock returned 74% in the twelve months to September 23, 2026. A $10,000 holding at the start was worth about $17,350 at the end. The run turned out to be about customers buying more, led by power equipment for data centers. Caterpillar’s own sales, though, were still falling when the run began. You would have needed a public sign that Caterpillar’s demand was turning before its sales did.
Where Would Caterpillar’s Demand Show Up First?
It could show up in what dealers sell before it shows up in Caterpillar’s revenue. Caterpillar sells machines to dealers, who sell them on to the customers who use them. Management calls what dealers sell to those customers sales to users.
In the call for the third quarter of 2024, held in October 2024, management said sales to users fell 6%. The first hint came in the April 30, 2025 call. Management said its merchandising programs, which it later credited with lifting sales to users, were yielding results. That line was easy to miss among tariff worries. Heavy equipment stocks fell on April 3, 2025, after new tariff policies were announced. The April 30 call also said tariffs had increased uncertainty. The August 2025 call said more about those end buyers.
In August 2025, End Buyers Beat Caterpillar’s Expectations
In the August 5, 2025 call, management said its merchandising programs had lifted sales to users above its own expectations. Management articulated this trend publicly well before the equity market reflected the shift.
The filed revenue figures pointed the same way. Revenue in the quarter ended March 2025 was down 9.8% from a year earlier. By the quarter ended June 2025, filed on August 6, 2025, the decline had narrowed to 0.7%.
The power side is harder to see, even now. The closest line came earlier, in October 2024, when management spoke of using its large engine platforms across many applications. That line reads as a hint only because you know what came next. The early signs pointed to a recovery, not to how far Caterpillar stock would run.
How Far Did Caterpillar Stock Run?
The S&P 500 returned 16.5% over the same window. Caterpillar gained more than four times as much.
By the August 4, 2026 call, Caterpillar’s backlog, meaning orders not yet delivered, had reached $72 billion. Within Power & Energy, power generation stood out, growing 72% in the second quarter of 2026. Management tied that growth to demand for large generators and turbines used in data centers.
Investors now pay 34.5 times Caterpillar’s last twelve months of earnings, against 22.4 for the S&P 500. That price-to-earnings ratio is the price of each dollar of yearly profit. With shares pulling back since the summer, tracking whether end demand continues to expand is a critical factor for your watchlist.
Is Caterpillar’s Demand Still Building Today?
On the latest figures, it is, even though the stock has fallen. In the second quarter of 2026, Power & Energy sales to users grew 33% from a year earlier. Construction Industries sales to users grew 22%, their sixth straight quarter of growth. For the third quarter, management expected another strong quarter of sales growth.
The stock fell 18.2% over the last three months, while the S&P 500 gained 5.0%. The figures do not tie that drop to one cause. In the August 2026 call, the question of data center demand in later years came up. Management answered that no one was slowing down at the time of the call.
The measure to watch is Power & Energy sales to users when Caterpillar reports its third quarter of 2026. Growth near or above 33% would suggest that end-user demand remains intact, whereas growth well below that pace could signal a moderating expansion in customer buying. Supply could also be the limit, though: management said customers wanted more units than it could get out.
How To Act On CAT?
