Can Casey’s Stock Jump 30%?
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A 30% jump from its November 3, 2026 close of $665.39 would still leave Casey’s General Stores (CASY) stock below its June 11, 2026 close of $914.72. Buyers looking for that 30% rise may be betting on a surprising business for a gas station chain: the prepared food and dispensed beverages, such as pizza, sold inside its stores. Yet the shares have lost 22.7% since May 5, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 4.8%. So how much does Casey’s actually make on prepared food?
How Much Gross Profit Casey’s Makes On Prepared Food
Prepared food sales reached $493 million, up 7.4% from a year earlier. Management put the prepared food gross margin at 59.3%, against 35.6% for grocery and general merchandise. Based on management’s adjusted margin, Casey’s made about $292 million of gross profit on prepared food in fiscal Q1 2027, the three months to July 31, 2026, out of a reported $1.24 billion for the whole company.
At existing stores, growth is coming mostly from more customers, with little from higher prices. Same-store prepared food sales rose 4.8%, and management said most of the gain came from traffic with minimal price. Pizza restaurant chains have taken more price while Casey’s has taken minimal price, management said on the September 9, 2026 call.
Are Casey’s Cefco Remodels Paying Off Yet?
At the converted locations, the remodels are paying off, but those gains have not yet reached Casey’s overall results. After buying Fikes, Casey’s is turning its Cefco stores into Casey’s stores, converting about 50 of them in fiscal 2026 and 24 more in fiscal Q1 2027. Prepared food sales at the remodeled stores rose 30% on average against the same period before the remodel, management said.
The costs show up first. Free cash flow fell to $190 million in fiscal Q1 2027 from $262 million a year earlier, a decline management put down in large part to the planned rise in spending on the Cefco remodels. The construction also cut inside same-store sales by about 25 basis points.
Management does not expect the remodels to lift the company’s totals in fiscal Q2, or meaningfully in fiscal Q3. It said the turn would probably come in fiscal Q4 2027, meaning the gain is visible only store by store for now.
What You Should Not Read Into Casey’s Food Margin
Although the prepared food margin rose 130 basis points, none of that rise came from selling more or pricing better. Management said cheaper cheese and an accounting change in distribution costs accounted for all of it. Cheese cost $1.93 a pound, against $2.11 a year earlier.
Fuel profit also moves on its own. Casey’s earned 47.8 cents a gallon on fuel in fiscal Q1 2027, but management called the quarter volatile and put August in the low 40 cents a gallon. That leaves traffic and the remodels as the parts of the case that come from the business itself. If prepared food traffic slows, Casey’s loses growth in the inside sales that earn it the most per dollar. If the remodeled stores stop lifting sales, Casey’s gets no return on the spending that lowered its free cash flow.
Today, prepared food is still growing on traffic, and the remodeled Cefco stores show a lift that management expects to reach overall results only late in the fiscal year. Casey’s is expected to report its fiscal second quarter in December 2026. In that report, same-store prepared food sales and the sales at the remodeled Cefco stores are the figures to watch.
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