What’s Next For Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock After A 17% Rise In A Month?

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Anheuser-Busch InBev stock (NYSE: BUD) has seen a rise of 17% in a month, while it’s down 1% this year. This compares with 6% and -14% returns for the broader S&P500 index over the same periods, respectively. This outperformance can partly be attributed to an upbeat Q3 performance, with sales and earnings rising, driven by higher demand. Furthermore, a recent upward revision in BUD’s stock price estimate from one of the Wall Street research firms has also bolstered its growth. Anheuser-Busch InBev is also the official sponsor for Qatar’s ongoing FIFA World Cup. Given that Qatar has banned the sale of beer inside the stadiums, the company is reportedly seeking a discount from its sponsorship deal with FIFA. [1]

But now that BUD stock has seen a 17% rise in a month will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of an increase in BUD stock over the next month. BUD stock has seen a move of 17% or more only 35 times in the last ten years. Of those, 26 resulted in BUD stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 26 out of 35, or a 74% chance of a rise in BUD stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving 5.9% or more over five days, the stock rose on 41% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving 8.5% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 51% of the occasions
  • After moving 17.0% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 74% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in BUD stock over the next ten and twenty-one days.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500

  • Five-Day Return: BUD highest at 5.9%; TAP lowest at -0.5%
  • Ten-Day Return: BUD highest at 8.5%; SAM lowest at 1.8%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: BUD highest at 17.0%; SAM lowest at 3.8%

The Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Starbucks vs. Commercial Metals.

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 Returns Dec 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 BUD Return 1% -1% -43%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -14% 82%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 1% -17% 229%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/2/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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Notes:
  1. AB Inbev: Should BUD get reduced World Cup sponsorship deal after FIFA curbs beer sales?, Jenny McCall, Nov 25, 2022, Capital []