After An 11% Gain In One Week, What Is Next For BlackRock Stock?

+26.18%
Upside
648
Market
817
Trefis
BLK: BlackRock logo
BLK
BlackRock

BlackRock’s stock (NYSE: BLK) has gained 11% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 6.6%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (8.3% vs 3.4%) and one month period (2.4% vs -2.9%).

The asset management giant has consistently delivered strong earnings over the recent quarters. In addition, it increased the quarterly dividend from $4.13 to $4.88 per share (to be paid on the 23rd of June). This is in line with its past track record of paying stable dividends, re-assuring the investors of its growth potential. Further, the latest macroeconomic data showing improvement in the consumer spending levels and signs of a cool down in the inflation numbers in April has further boosted investor sentiment.  

Now, is BlackRock stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 58% chance of a rise in BlackRock stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on BlackRock Stock Chance of Rise.

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We estimate BlackRock’s valuation to be around $817 per share which is 23% above the current market price. 

Twenty-One Day: BLK 2.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.9%; Outperformed market

(48% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • BlackRock stock gained 2.4% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.9%
  • A change of 2.4% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 48% likelihood event, which has occurred 1195 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1195 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 699 occasions
  • This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: BLK 8.3%, vs. S&P500 3.4%; Outperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • BlackRock stock increased 8.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 3.4%
  • A change of 8.3% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 133 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 133 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 70 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: BLK 11%, vs. S&P500 6.6%; Outperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 20% probability of rise over next five days)

  • BlackRock stock improved 11% over a five-day trading period ending 05/30/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 6.6%
  • A change of 11% or more over five trading days (one week) is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 5 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these five instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on one occasion
  • This points to a 20% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns May 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 BLK Return 7% -27% 75%
 S&P 500 Return 1% -13% 86%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 1% -16% 228%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/31/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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