BG Stock Is Not the Bargain It Appears to Be

Bunge Global (NYSE: BG), the agribusiness and food giant, has seen its stock tumble 32% over the past year, while the S&P 500 has gained 12% over the same period. The primary culprit: a steep decline in global crop prices. Oversupply of corn, soybeans, and wheat has pushed commodity prices to multi-year lows, compressing margins across Bunge’s core processing operations. In Q1 2025, Bunge reported a 40% year-over-year drop in adjusted earnings, prompting a downward revision in its full-year EPS forecast to $7.75. Despite efforts to diversify and scale up through strategic moves like the Viterra merger, Bunge remains heavily exposed to cyclical agricultural market swings. Separately, see MSFT Stock to $1000?

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How Have Bunge Global’s Revenues Grown Over Recent Years?

Bunge Global’s Revenues have fallen considerably over recent years.

• Bunge Global has seen its top line decline at an average rate of 5.7% over the last 3 years (vs. an increase of 5.5% for S&P 500)
• Its revenues have decreased 10.9% from $58 Bil to $51 Bil in the last 12 months (vs. growth of 5.5% for S&P 500)
• Also, its quarterly revenues reduced by 13.2% to $12 Bil in the most recent quarter from $13 Bil a year ago (vs. 4.8% improvement for S&P 500)

How Profitable Is Bunge Global?

Bunge Global’s profit margins are considerably worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe.

• Bunge Global’s Operating Income over the last four quarters was $1.4 Bil, which represents a very poor Operating Margin of 2.7%
• Bunge Global’s Operating Cash Flow (OCF) over this period was $621 Mil, pointing to a very poor OCF Margin of 1.2% (vs. 14.9% for S&P 500)
• For the last four-quarter period, Bunge Global’s Net Income was $1.1 Bil – indicating a poor Net Income Margin of 2.1% (vs. 11.6% for S&P 500)

Does Bunge Global Look Financially Stable?

Bunge Global’s balance sheet looks fine.

• Bunge Global’s Debt figure was $7.7 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $10 Bil (as of 7/7/2025). This implies a poor Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 71.2% (vs. 19.4% for S&P 500). [Note: A low Debt-to-Equity Ratio is desirable]
• Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $3.9 Bil of the $27 Bil in Total Assets for Bunge Global.  This yields a strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 14.6%

How Resilient Is BG Stock During A Downturn?

BG stock has fared much worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on BG stock? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes.

Inflation Shock (2022)

• BG stock fell 35.4% from a high of $126.76 on 18 April 2022 to $81.92 on 26 September 2022, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
• The highest the stock has reached since then is 115.98 on 7 August 2023 and currently trades at around $75

Covid Pandemic (2020)

• BG stock fell 47.8% from a high of $57.94 on 3 January 2020 to $30.25 on 18 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 28 October 2020

Global Financial Crisis (2008)

• BG stock fell 77.5% from a high of $133.00 on 14 January 2008 to $29.99 on 28 October 2008, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high

Putting All The Pieces Together

Despite a seemingly attractive valuation, BG stock appears fundamentally weak across growth, profitability, and downturn resilience. Until there’s evidence of a turnaround in commodity pricing or sustained improvement in operating metrics, the stock remains a high-risk bet.

While you would do well to avoid BG stock for now, you could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.