How Long Could Bloom Energy Stock Stay Underwater?

A sharp drop invites questions, but its history in true market shocks reveals the real risk you carry.

Bloom Energy (BE) stock’s 18.5% drop on June 26th, 2026, might feel sharp, but it’s a ripple compared to its history in true market storms. The company provides clean, on-site power with its Bloom Energy Servers, a solution now in high demand for AI data centers. On its latest call, management announced a landmark deal to power Oracle’s multi-gigawatt Project Jupiter and raised 2026 revenue guidance to between $3.4 billion and $3.8 billion.

While the business story is strong, the stock’s volatility is real. The urgent question for any shareholder is not about the next earnings report, but how deep the stock can fall in a broad market shock, and whether you can stomach the ride.

A 78% Fall During The 2020 COVID Crash

When the broad market stumbles, Bloom Energy has historically fallen much harder. Across the seven major shocks it has traded through, the stock’s average peak-to-trough drop was about 49%, nearly triple the S&P 500’s 17% decline. Its single deepest drawdown was a 78% plunge during the 2020 COVID-19 Crash.

This amplified downside has been most pronounced during a “Growth & Demand Scare,” a category that includes events like the Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare and that same COVID crash.

A Median Recovery Of About 5 Months

Surviving the fall is one thing; waiting for the recovery is another. For the shocks it has fully recovered from, Bloom Energy has taken a median of about 5 months to reclaim its prior high. However, patience can be tested for much longer.

The slowest recovery took about 26 months following the Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare. While some rebounds have been swift, a quick bounce-back is never a guarantee. An investor needs to be prepared for a potentially long period of being underwater.

Every Major Shock Bloom Energy Has Traded Through

Peak-to-trough drawdown in each shock, and how long the stock took to reclaim its pre-shock high. Stock vs. the S&P 500, long-duration bonds, and its sector.

[1] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[2] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[3] 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[4] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[5] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[6] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[7] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.

Oracle’s Project Jupiter And New Risks

The company that endured those past shocks is not the same one operating today. Its trailing twelve-month operating margin is now a positive 6.7%, a world away from its three-year average of -8.1%. A landmark deal with Oracle for its Project Jupiter and a major guidance hike signal a potential business inflection driven by AI demand. Management now speaks of “continuous capacity increases.”

But this hyper-growth brings new execution risks, centered on its ability to scale its supply chain without a hitch. While the business is undeniably stronger, its high-growth profile means the historical pattern of amplified drawdowns in a market shock likely remains relevant.

A 10% Position Faces An 8% Portfolio Cut

To make this tangible, consider the portfolio impact. That deepest 78% drawdown would have cut about 8% from an entire portfolio if Bloom Energy was a 10% position. At a 20% weight, the hit would be about 16%. These are sizable impacts that can test anyone’s discipline.

The one lever you fully control is not the market, but your own exposure. The key variable ahead is whether the company’s supply chain can scale to meet its new growth trajectory.

How Far Could Your Other Holdings Fall?

You have just seen, in hard numbers, how far Bloom Energy has fallen when markets break, and how long it took to climb back. The natural next question is how much the rest of what you own could fall, and the options market puts a forward number on exactly that: the expected move it prices in for each stock over the year ahead. Our Expected Move screen ranks which S&P 500 names carry the widest priced-in swings, so you can see whether your other holdings are sitting on more downside than you have accounted for.

So Where Should A Stock That Can Fall This Far Actually Sit?

The first instinct is to spread it out, and that is a real step. Owning an electrical components & equipment ETF like ICLN instead of just the one name takes the single-company risk off the table, so a rough stretch at Bloom Energy alone no longer decides your year.

But a sector basket is still one sector. You get the laggards alongside the leaders, and as the table above shows, the whole group still falls when the market breaks. Spreading single-stock risk is not the same as managing risk. That is the gap the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is built to close: not a whole index, the 30 strongest names across sectors, sized and rebalanced with rules so no one company, or sector, decides your year. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines all major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000.