BigBear.ai Stock To $4?
BigBear.ai (BBAI) stock has fallen by 29.3% in less than a month, from $8.91 on 10/14/2025 to $6.30 now. What comes next? As it turns out, the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Very Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $4 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on BBAI stock to help you make the decision. The stock has returned (median) 30% in one year, and 132% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, BBAI provides decision support analytics solutions for defense, intelligence, federal, manufacturing, supply chain, logistics, and commercial markets.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell BigBear.ai Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. We go beyond just equities. Is a portfolio of 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto in addition to equities and bonds likely to return more during the next 1-3 years, and protect you better if markets crash 20%? We have crunched the numbers.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
- Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Rivian Automotive Stock
- What Could Spark the Rivian Automotive Stock’s Next Big Move
- 3 Forces That Could Shake Oklo Stock
- Oklo Stock on the Edge: 3 Threats You Need to Know
- Oklo Stock Can Sink, Here Is How
- Cash Rich, Low Price – Remitly Global Stock to Break Out?
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -12.6% |
| 3M | 7.3% |
| 6M | -11.3% |
| 12M | 30.5% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
BBAI had 9 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 132% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 208 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -36% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | BBAI Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BBAI | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 30% | 132% | -36% | 208 | ||||
| 8282025 | -37% | 3% | 34% | 73% | -8% | 47 | ||
| 3192025 | -37% | -6% | 123% | 186% | -23% | 209 | ||
| 4102024 | -48% | 2% | 58% | 449% | -33% | 309 | ||
| 8092023 | -33% | 2% | -24% | 172% | -25% | 208 | ||
| 5302023 | -40% | 2% | -28% | 103% | -44% | 279 | ||
| 3142023 | -53% | -2% | 30% | 132% | -36% | 356 | ||
| 11102022 | -34% | 9% | 73% | 493% | -39% | 88 | ||
| 5242022 | -50% | -10% | -61% | 7% | -90% | 1 | ||
| 12222021 | -31% | 0% | -89% | 86% | -89% | 112 | ||
BigBear.ai Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 3.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 1.4% | Fail |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | -17.9% | Fail |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -15.0 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 13.9 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.