Is A Fall Imminent For Boeing Stock After A 19% Rise In A Month?

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Trefis
BA: The Boeing Company logo
BA
The Boeing Company

Boeing stock (NYSE: BA) is up 19% in a month, while it’s up 2% over the last twelve months, outperforming the broader markets, with the S&P500 index down 17%. Last month, United Airlines placed a large order of one hundred 787 Dreamliners with an option to buy one hundred more. The deal value will likely be over $30 billion. [1] There are also reports of Air India being close to signing a large order of over 200 aircraft with Boeing. [2] Besides the expected rise in orders, Boeing stock also benefits from a rise in deliveries. It delivered 48 airplanes in November, compared to just 35 in October. Some Wall Street analysts have also raised their price targets for BA, bolstering its stock price growth.

Now that BA stock has seen a rise of 19% in a month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a lower chance of a rise for BA stock over the next month. A move of 19% in a month has occurred 84 times in the past ten years. Of those 84 instances, only 38 resulted in BA stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 38 out of 84, or about a 45% chance of a rise in BA stock over the next month. See our analysis of Boeing’s Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving 10.5% or more over five days, the stock rose on 52% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving 11.8% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 63% of the occasions in the next ten days.
  • After moving 19.3% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 45% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in BA stock over the next five and ten days but lower chances of an increase over the next twenty-one days.

Boeing (BA) Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: BA highest at 10.5%; NOC lowest at -6.8%
  • Ten-Day Return: BA highest at 11.8%; NOC lowest at -4.3%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: BA highest at 19.3%; LHX lowest at -6.9%

While BA stock may see lower levels over the next twenty-one days, it is helpful to see how Boeing’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Vicor vs. Williams Sonoma.

Despite inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Boeing stock has risen 2% over the last twelve months. But can it drop from here? See how low Boeing stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Jan 2023
MTD [1]
2023
YTD [1]
2017-23
Total [2]
 BA Return 12% 12% 37%
 S&P 500 Return 1% 1% 74%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 2% 2% 222%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/9/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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Notes:
  1. United Airlines Orders 100 Boeing Dreamliners, Andrew Tangel and Alison Sider, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 13, 2022 []
  2. Air India jumbo order includes 190 Boeing MAX, 30 787s -sources, Tim Hepher and Aditi Shah, Dec 13, 2022, Reuters []