What Is The True Hidden Price Of Axon Stock?
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Axon Enterprise (AXON) stock has lost about half its value over the past year, yet it still trades at 45.9 times its adjusted earnings for the last twelve months, a profit figure that adds back stock-based pay after tax. That is a lot to pay for one year of profit, but you are also paying for the profit to come. So what does Axon cost on analyst forecasts for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027?
What Axon Stock Costs On Forecast Profit
On the consensus forecast for fiscal 2026, Axon trades at 33.5 times profit. On the forecast for fiscal 2027, the same share price is 29.9 times profit. Those are analyst forecasts, and they may not count profit the same way as the 45.9 times trailing figure.
This creates a hidden price.
How Much Growth Axon Has To Deliver
For fiscal 2027, the consensus forecast has Axon’s sales rising 29.5% from the fiscal 2026 forecast, a little below the 33.6% growth Axon delivered over the twelve months ended September 30, 2026. If fiscal 2026 sales land at the $3.62 billion midpoint of management’s guide, the $4.81 billion forecast for fiscal 2027 needs growth of about 33%. Profit in the forecast rises 12.0% that year, more slowly than sales, so the forecast’s net margin falls to 17.0% in fiscal 2027, from 19.7% in fiscal 2026.
Real business operations underpin this expected sales growth. Management said on the November 5, 2026 call that Software and Services revenue climbed 43% from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026, approaching half of the company’s revenue. Meeting the fiscal 2027 forecast therefore requires Axon to deliver growth close to what it already delivers, on a margin no wider than the fiscal 2026 forecast.
Where Axon Could Miss The Forecast
Axon’s sales forecast for fiscal 2026 sits above management’s own guide. The consensus forecast puts revenue for that year at $3.71 billion, against the $3.61 billion to $3.63 billion management guided on November 5, 2026. Management lowered its growth guide for the year to 30%, from 33%, the same day. It also took three federal Dedrone deployments worth about $130 million out of its outlook. The consensus forecast is about 34% above fiscal 2025 sales of $2.78 billion, close to the old 33% guide. So the risk to the sales forecast is downward, toward the guide.
Profit is the larger risk. The consensus forecast has Axon earning a net margin of 19.7% in fiscal 2026, against the 4.5% net margin the company reported for fiscal 2025. The forecast may count profit differently. share count in the filings data rose 13.3% in the two years to September 30, 2026, which leaves each existing share with a smaller piece of the company. Our data does not show whether the new shares raised cash or came from stock pay. Management said memory costs hit its new Axon Body 5 camera hard, and it plans for those costs to stay a headwind through 2027 and 2028. So the risk to the profit forecast is also downward, and the forecast for fiscal 2027 is already uncertain: the gap between the highest and lowest earnings per share estimates is 41.9% of the average estimate.
If Axon earns the profit in the forecast, the price on fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 profit provides a fair picture of what you pay. Margin represents the area where the forecast is most likely to fall short. If it does, Axon stock becomes a riskier bet, priced for profit forecasts the company still has to meet. Axon’s net margin for fiscal 2026 is the figure to watch when the company reports in February 2027.
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