Has Buying Axon Stock’s Dips Paid Off?
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Axon Enterprise (AXON) stock closed at $315.42 on November 11, 2026, sitting 28% below its October 29 close. The steepest day was November 6, when shares fell 18.2% the day after Axon lowered its revenue growth forecast for the year and agreed to invest more in the drone maker Skydio. Buyers tempted by a fall that fast will want to know how Axon shares did after earlier drops of about this size.
Shares Were Higher A Year After Most Axon Drops
Since the start of 2010, Axon shares have fallen more than 30% over 30 trading days on 11 separate occasions. Eight of those drops are more than a year old, and the shares were higher a year later after six of them. The median result across those eight was a 69% gain, though the drop of April 2010 ended its year 19% lower. The other three drops, all in 2026, are too recent to judge. The latest of them came on September 25, 2026, before the current fall began.
Collecting those gains took patience. At the median, the lowest close for the shares in the following year was 13.1% below the price on the day of the drop, and after the August 2015 drop the stock reached 37.6% below. Buyers usually waited most of a year for the peak: the best price of the year arrived a median 336 days, or about 11 months, after the drop.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median AXON price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 11 | 8.0% |
| 63 trading days | 10 | 14.0% |
| 126 trading days | 10 | 35.5% |
| 252 trading days | 8 | 69.0% |
| Dip date | Fall to dip date (AXON / SPY) | 1 year later | Best in that year (days to it) | Worst in that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | -30.1% / -1.0% | – | – | – |
| 2026-04-09 | -32.5% / -2.0% | – | – | – |
| 2026-02-05 | -33.4% / -1.0% | – | – | – |
| 2022-05-06 | -30.5% / -9.0% | 136.0% | 137.0% (347 days) | -12.1% |
| 2021-03-26 | -32.3% / 2.0% | -4.0% | 40.4% (132 days) | -12.7% |
| 2020-03-18 | -35.7% / -27.0% | 166.0% | 286.8% (330 days) | 0% |
| 2018-12-20 | -31.1% / -10.0% | 72.0% | 86.0% (341 days) | -3.9% |
| 2015-11-17 | -30.1% / 4.0% | 66.0% | 75.7% (273 days) | -13.5% |
| 2015-08-12 | -30.2% / 1.0% | 25.0% | 25.8% (359 days) | -37.6% |
| 2014-05-07 | -30.6% / 1.0% | 148.0% | 163.5% (363 days) | -20.0% |
| 2010-04-23 | -30.3% / 6.0% | -19.0% | 4.1% (20 days) | -26.9% |
| Median of 8 complete years | – | 69.0% | 80.8% (336 days) | -13.1% |
Axon Is Growing Fast But Keeps Little Profit
Axon is still posting rapid sales increases. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue climbed 27.8% from a year earlier to $909 million, though that marked the slowest growth in the five quarters through September 2026. Management said Software and Services revenue grew 43% to $437 million in that quarter.
Axon keeps little of that revenue as profit or cash. Over the twelve months to September 30, 2026, Axon’s operating margin was 2.0%, against 19.0% for the S&P 500. Free cash flow over the same twelve months was $80.9 million, and management said its deliberate build-up of inventory is the main drag on cash in fiscal 2026.
Buyers still pay a premium for that growth. Axon traded at 7.5 times its last twelve months of sales at the November 11 close, against 3.2 times for the S&P 500.
Axon Now Expects Slower Growth In 2026
Axon now expects revenue to grow 30% in fiscal 2026, down from the 33% it forecast in August. Management said its fourth-quarter outlook no longer assumes two large federal deployments of Dedrone, its counter-drone business, which are worth about $100 million together. For that quarter, Axon guided revenue of $990 million to $1.01 billion, and fourth-quarter revenue against that range is the number to watch when the company is expected to report in February 2027.
People who bought Axon’s past drops usually came out ahead a year later, though they typically endured a further fall and a long wait first. This time the company has also just lowered its growth forecast. Axon is still growing fast, but it keeps very little of its sales as profit. Is that enough to expect its record after past drops to hold this time?
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