Stress Testing AVGO: Historical Drawdowns and Macro Risks
Every seasoned investor knows that market shocks are inevitable. What matters is the depth of the hit. Historically, across 13 major crises, Broadcom (AVGO) absorbs an average drawdown of -19% vs. the S&P 500’s average decline of -14% over the same events.
If you are an investor in AVGO stock, you might be asking: if the macroeconomic environment fractures, how far can this stock actually fall?
One of the ways to understand this is to simply see how the stock has performed during past market crashes.
How Does It Handle Growth & Demand Scare?
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2020 COVID-19 Crash (Feb 2020 to Apr 2020)
- A novel coronavirus triggered pandemic fears. Italy’s healthcare collapse and a March 2020 Saudi-Russia oil price war signaled uncontainable disruption.
- Governments shut economies, triggering the fastest bear market in history. Unlimited QE and $2.2T fiscal stimulus drove a V-shaped recovery following vaccine development.
AVGO stock experienced -47% drawdown during this event, compared to -34% for the S&P and -0.7% for bonds.
What Happens During Sovereign & Geopolitical Risk?
2025 US Tariff Shock (Feb 2025 to Jun 2025)
- The Trump administration announced 145% tariffs on Chinese imports on April 2, 2025, representing the most aggressive trade action since the 1930s.
- Equities and the dollar fell simultaneously, signaling lost confidence. Supply chain disruptions and small-cap input inflation drove broad declines, affecting nearly all sectors.
AVGO stock saw -36% drawdown vs -19% for the S&P and -3.8% for bonds.
How It Fares During Positioning & Commodity Unwind?
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind (Jul 2024 to Aug 2024)
- The BOJ’s July 31, 2024 hike triggered yen appreciation, collapsing carry trade economics. A weak U.S. jobs report subsequently raised recession fears.
- The Nikkei fell 12.4% on August 5. Tech stocks hit hardest before the BOJ walked back signals and recession fears proved premature.
The drawdown for AVGO stood at -22% compared to -7.8% for the S&P and -1.2% for bonds.
Past Market Shock Drawdowns Summarized For AVGO
| Shock Event | S&P | Bonds | Sector | Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | -15% | None | -15% | -12% |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | -18% | -1.1% | -16% | -27% |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | -0.2% | -17% | -0.8% | None |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | -6.8% | -5.0% | -7.2% | -16% |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | -12% | -4.4% | -12% | -14% |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | -3.7% | -15% | -3.8% | -4.6% |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | -19% | -2.2% | -24% | -15% |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -34% | -0.7% | -31% | -47% |
| 2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market | -24% | -35% | -33% | -34% |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | -6.7% | -4.3% | -5.1% | -4.2% |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | -9.5% | -17% | -10% | -11% |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | -7.8% | -1.2% | -17% | -22% |
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | -19% | -3.8% | -26% | -36% |
[1] 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash: Greece’s deficit revelation collapsed European banks and triggered the May Flash Crash.
[2] 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion: US credit downgrade and European sovereign stress triggered a broad risk-off selloff.
[3] 2013 Taper Tantrum: Bernanke’s taper hint spiked Treasury yields, triggering emerging market capital flight.
[4] 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse: OPEC refused to cut output, crashing crude from $100 to $26.
[5] 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare: Yuan devaluation sparked global recession fears, crushing cyclicals and emerging markets.
[6] 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff: Trump’s election spurred fiscal stimulus hopes, rotating capital from bonds into cyclicals.
[7] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[8] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[9] 2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[10] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[11] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[12] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[13] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.
So What Can You Do For Your Investments?
Panic is a failure of preparation. When a Growth & Demand Scare shock hits, AVGO will contract predictably. Recognizing this behavior as a mathematical feature rather than a flaw allows investors to avoid selling at the exact wrong moment.
Incorporating a rule-based and diversified approach, such as the Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ), ensures your capital is protected enough to ride out these inevitable structural resets. HQ has returned > 105% since inception.