Can Broadcom Stock Fall Further?
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Shares of Broadcom (AVGO) lost 20.5% in the three months to November 3, 2026, while the S&P 500 slipped 1.7%. The stock ended that day 30.8% below its June 2 closing high. A fall of that size is not new for the company. Broadcom has traded through 13 market shocks since 2009, and the stock dropped by that much or more in three of them. News reports said part of the recent slide came when shares fell more than 6% after Broadcom issued its fourth-quarter revenue guidance on September 2, which fell short of Wall Street expectations. So how deep is a typical Broadcom fall when the market turns, and how long did the stock take to come back?
How Deep And How Long Were Broadcom’s Past Falls?
The 2020 COVID-19 shock hit Broadcom hardest, sending the stock down 47% while the S&P 500 lost 34%. Across all 13 shocks, Broadcom shares dropped an average of 18.7%, compared with a 13.5% decline for the index, so a typical fall for the company has been deeper than the broader market’s. The most recent large decline occurred during the 2025 US tariff shock, when the stock fell 36% against a 19% drop for the S&P 500.
Broadcom has also climbed back each time. The stock regained its pre-fall high following all 12 shocks that produced a decline, requiring a median wait of 1.4 months from the low. The 2013 taper tantrum was the single shock that brought no fall. The slowest return followed the 2022 inflation shock, taking 7.1 months to climb from the October 2022 low back to the January 2022 high.
Broadcom Sells More, At A Wider Margin
Broadcom generated $89.1 billion in revenue over the four quarters ended August 2, 2026, up 48.7% from the four quarters before. The company recorded a 48.5% operating margin over those quarters, against 39.0% for the four quarters a year earlier. That marks the widest four-quarter operating margin Broadcom has posted at any fiscal quarter end from fiscal Q4 2016 to fiscal Q3 2026.
The company also owes less than it did two years ago. Total debt stood at $59.4 billion on August 2, 2026, down from $70.0 billion in August 2024. Based on the November 3 share price, that debt amounts to 3.8% of Broadcom’s market value, compared with 19.2% for the S&P 500.
What Is Getting Harder For Broadcom Now?
Broadcom cannot yet make all the AI chips its customers want. On the September 2 call, management said the company has secured enough supply to double AI revenue to about $115 billion in fiscal 2027, and that demand is higher than that. Management also said they always keep in mind whether customers will put the chips to use on time, since a data center must be ready before the chips go in.
Broadcom is also helping two AI labs, OpenAI and Anthropic, pay for that build-out. A financing platform Broadcom set up with partners closed a first $35 billion tranche for Anthropic in June. Management said Broadcom may provide modest residual value guarantees, which it called contingent liabilities it views as low risk. Asked on the call about a maximum exposure of about $29 billion on the first tranche, management said the numbers for what Broadcom has already done remain true.
Broadcom also expects to retain less gross profit on each dollar of sales. On its own measure, management guided fiscal fourth-quarter gross margin to about 73%, down from 78% a year earlier, because custom accelerators with more memory make up a larger share of revenue. That gross margin is the figure to watch when Broadcom reports its fiscal fourth quarter in December 2026.
Beyond AVGO: A Systematic Way To Invest
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