The stock price of Arvinas (NASDAQ: ARVN), a biopharmaceuticals company focused on oncology treatments based on targeted protein degradation, has fallen 24% in a month, while it’s down a significant 49% YTD. The fall over the recent weeks can primarily be attributed to a downgrade on ARVN stock from one of the Wall Street analysts, citing development challenges for its cancer treatment – ARV-471. Larger pharmaceutical companies, Sanofi and Roche, have seen failures in their clinical trials for cancer treatments using oral selective estrogen receptor degraders (SERDs), raising investor concerns for Arvinas. However, the selling appears to be overdone for ARVN. Its current market price of $42 is below the lower end of the analysts’ range and significantly below the $102 average of analysts’ estimates.
What about the near term? Now that ARVN has seen a fall of 24% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a very high chance of a rise for ARVN stock over the next month. Of 52 instances in the last four years that ARVN stock saw a twenty-one-day fall of 24% or more, 43 resulted in ARVN stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 43 out of 52, or about an 83% chance of a rise in ARVN stock over the next month. See our analysis of Arvinas Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last four years’ data
- After moving -3% or more over five days, the stock rose on 51% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving -2% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 49% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving -24% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 83% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
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This pattern suggests a strong chance of a rise in ARVN stock over the next month. However, it has nearly an equal chance of a rise or a fall in the next five days and the next ten days.
Arvinas (ARVN) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: LIVN highest at 4.4%; ARVN lowest at -3.3%
- Ten-Day Return: PRGO highest at 6.7%; ARVN lowest at -1.8%
- Twenty-One Day Return: PRGO highest at 16.2%; ARVN lowest at -24.2%
|S&P 500 Return||0%||-13%||85%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||1%||-18%||223%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/1/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016