How Much Downside Is Left In Applied Digital Stock?

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Applied Digital (APLD) stock lost 29.4% in the month to November 9, 2026, against 3.3% for the S&P 500. With the shares 66.3% below their May high, the worst may look over. So how far has Applied Digital stock fallen in past market sell-offs, and how long did it stay down?

Applied Digital Has Fallen Far Deeper Than The Market

During the market shocks it has traded through since late 2008, Applied Digital stock fell 45.9% on average. The S&P 500 declined 14.4% over those same dates. During the Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock, for example, the stock lost 62.0% while the index fell 9.5%.

Its deepest fall in those shocks came in the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis: 92.0%, against 25.9% for the S&P 500, over a stretch that included several one-day drops of more than a third. Much of that record comes from before 2021, and the company reported almost no sales in the year to August 31, 2021.

After each of those falls, the stock got back to the high it fell from, a median of 6.6 months after its low. Two recoveries took more than a year, though: 12.4 months after the 2023 yield shock, and more than ten years from a low in July 2010. That low came in the 2010 Eurozone debt crisis, on a one-day drop of more than a third.

Sales And Debt Have Both Soared At Applied Digital

Applied Digital reported sales of $342 million in fiscal Q1 2027, the quarter that ended August 31, 2026, up 322.4% from a year earlier. Most of that total, $262.6 million, came from its HPC hosting business, which leases out data center campuses built for AI, management said on the October 7 call.

Applied Digital as a whole does not pay its way. Its operating loss came to 18.2% of sales in that quarter, against 9.3% a year earlier. After capital spending, its free cash flow was an outflow of $2.01 billion, against $331 million a year earlier.

Applied Digital has borrowed heavily to build its campuses. Total debt stood at $6.48 billion on August 31, 2026, up from $700 million a year earlier. That debt equals 133% of the company’s market value, compared with 19.4% for the S&P 500.

What Could Slow Applied Digital’s Build-Out Now?

Local opposition to new data centers is growing, management said on the October 7, 2026 call, noting more moratoriums, tighter zoning, longer permitting, and more community resistance in certain markets. Management argued that this opposition makes campuses already powered and running, like its own, more valuable.

Applied Digital also still has to finance its next campuses, Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1, and Delta Forge 2, which are all leased to a single investment-grade tenant for 15 years. For the final building at Polaris Forge 1, the company sold $1.59 billion of notes in June that pay 7% interest.

Management also called power the single largest constraint in its industry. The gas plant in North Dakota that the company has agreed to buy power from is expected to start deliveries in 2030. Meanwhile, management expects to put more than 600 megawatts into service over the next 12 months, compared with 250 megawatts over the past 12 months. Megawatts placed into service is the measure to watch when Applied Digital next reports, expected in January 2027.

Does This Mean You Should Act On APLD?

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