Will Amazon’s Stock Rise After Buyback And Stock Split Announcement?

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) saw its stock fall by 12% over the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 fell by 4.5% during the same period. Yesterday the company announced that the Board has approved a 20-for-1 split of the e-commerce giant’s common stock and authorized a $10 billion buyback plan. The new price will be effective on June 6, 2022 and is expected to make the stock more accessible to retail investors. Now, is AMZN stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 69% chance of a near term rise in AMZN stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Amazon’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: AMZN -8.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Underperformed market

(2% event probability)

• Amazon’s stock declined 8.4% over a five day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 2.4%
• A change of -8.4% or more over five trading days has a 2% event probability, which has occurred 60 times out of 2515 in the last ten years

Ten Days: AMZN -3.8%, vs. S&P500 1.3%; Underperformed market

(15% event probability)

• Amazon’s stock declined 3.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 1.3%
• A change of -3.8% or more over ten trading days has a 15% event probability, which has occurred 383 times out of 2516 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: AMZN -12%, vs. S&P500 -4.5%; Underperformed market

(3% event probability)

• Amazon’s stock declined 12% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 4.5%.
• A change of -12% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 3% event probability, which has occurred 67 times out of 2515 in the last ten years.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/10/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016