Will Amazon’s Stock Rise After Buyback And Stock Split Announcement?

+60.86%
Upside
114
Market
183
Trefis
AMZN: Amazon logo
AMZN
Amazon

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) saw its stock fall by 12% over the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 fell by 4.5% during the same period. Yesterday the company announced that the Board has approved a 20-for-1 split of the e-commerce giant’s common stock and authorized a $10 billion buyback plan. The new price will be effective on June 6, 2022 and is expected to make the stock more accessible to retail investors. Now, is AMZN stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 69% chance of a near term rise in AMZN stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Amazon’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: AMZN -8.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Underperformed market

(2% event probability)

  • Amazon’s stock declined 8.4% over a five day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 2.4%
  • A change of -8.4% or more over five trading days has a 2% event probability, which has occurred 60 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
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Ten Days: AMZN -3.8%, vs. S&P500 1.3%; Underperformed market

(15% event probability)

  • Amazon’s stock declined 3.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 1.3%
  • A change of -3.8% or more over ten trading days has a 15% event probability, which has occurred 383 times out of 2516 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: AMZN -12%, vs. S&P500 -4.5%; Underperformed market

(3% event probability)

  • Amazon’s stock declined 12% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 4.5%.
  • A change of -12% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 3% event probability, which has occurred 67 times out of 2515 in the last ten years.

Check out how Amazon Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 AMZN Return -9% -16% 271%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -10% 91%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -3% -13% 244%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/10/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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