What Are Amgen Investors Betting On?

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Amgen (AMGN) shares have returned 65.7% over the past year. The stock now trades at 26.5 times adjusted earnings for the twelve months to September 2026. This metric calculates profit by adding after-tax stock-based pay to normalized net income, rather than relying on management’s own adjusted profit. While that represents a steep multiple for profit already made, buyers today are paying for the profit ahead. So what profit are Amgen buyers counting on?

Amgen Buyers Are Betting On Profit Outgrowing Sales

The consensus forecast expects Amgen to earn $12.5 billion in FY2026 and $13.2 billion in FY2027. For FY2027, the projection anticipates profit rising 5.9% alongside a 4.1% increase in sales. Under these estimates, Amgen would keep a little more of each dollar of sales, reaching a net margin of 32.6% in FY2027.

Based on the consensus forecast, the same share price values Amgen at 20.7 times expected FY2026 earnings and 19.5 times FY2027 earnings, compared to 26.5 times on the trailing twelve months. Most of that drop reflects a different profit measure, not profit growth, because the forecast leaves out acquisition-related costs that the trailing figure keeps. At a $478.48 share price, management’s GAAP guidance of $18.81 a share for FY2026 yields a multiple of about 25.4 times.

Amgen Is Already Growing Faster Than The Forecast Pace

Amgen’s revenue grew 8.2% over the twelve months to September 2026, compared to the 4.1% the consensus forecast projects for FY2027. During the November 3 call, management said that its six key growth drivers grew 27% in the third quarter. Repatha, the company’s cholesterol-lowering drug, grew 37% in that quarter.

On November 3, management also raised its FY2026 revenue guidance, moving the midpoint to $39.3 billion from $38.8 billion. The $39.1 billion consensus forecast for FY2026 sits just below that new midpoint. Additionally, the forecast expects $23.15 a share in FY2026 earnings, falling inside management’s non-GAAP range of $22.90 to $23.70. With three quarters already reported, the forecast matches management’s own guidance for FY2026, and the bet is on FY2027.

Where Could Amgen Miss This Forecast?

Amgen appears more likely to miss on profit than on sales, mostly in FY2027. The consensus forecast puts the FY2026 net margin at 32.0%, compared to the 21.0% Amgen reported for FY2025. This fits a forecast built on adjusted profit. To hold that margin and widen it in FY2027, Amgen must keep costs growing slower than sales. Yet management said that non-GAAP R&D spending grew 11% in the third quarter, outpacing the 8% rise in product sales.

Management also expects operating expenses to rise meaningfully in the fourth quarter. For 2027, executives have said only that they do not expect the operating margin to step down from the 2026 guidance. If R&D spending keeps growing faster than sales, the FY2027 profit forecast could come down. Analysts’ FY2027 estimates run from $22.89 to $26.11 a share.

On the sales side, some of Amgen’s larger drugs were shrinking or stalling in FY2025. ENBREL sales fell 32.9% in FY2025. Prolia, Amgen’s largest named product, grew 0.9% in FY2025 after an 8.1% rise in FY2024. If drugs like these lose sales faster than the growth drivers add them, FY2027 sales would fall short of the forecast.

If Amgen earns what the forecast expects, the price on FY2026 and FY2027 earnings is the one that counts. The FY2027 margin looks like the weakest part. If R&D keeps outpacing sales, you would be paying for profit Amgen has not shown it can make. Amgen’s spending growth against its sales growth is the measure to watch at its fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027.

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