3 Stocks That Could Pop Before December 31
Follow the whole story: every piece in this series is on our AI storyline page.
There are 36 trading days between now and New Year’s Eve. Our test: for every trading day since 2003, find the stocks sitting as far below their 1-year high as they are today, and count how often they gained 15% or more over the next 36 trading days. We picked three from different corners of the market, so you’re not making one bet three times.
That test cuts both ways: the same stocks fell another 15% or more up to about 1 time in 6. In a portfolio of a few million dollars, a bad December matters more than a 7-week pop. How would yours hold up? A Trefis partner firm can stress-test it with you in a free 15-minute call.
How Did We Pick Them?
| Stock | Below 1-yr high | +15% in 7 weeks | −15% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | 49% | 41% of the time | 2% |
| MercadoLibre (MELI) | 33% | 42% | 11% |
| Vertiv (VRT) | 47% | 44% | 18% |
All three have gained 15% about 4 times in 10 from here before, and each has something dated before Dec. 31 that could move it.
See more lines: the method and its limits
For each stock, we took every trading day since 2003 when it closed at least as far below its 252-day high as on Nov 9, minus 5 points, kept one day per week, and measured the return 36 trading days later. Sample sizes: Applied Materials 90, MercadoLibre 246, Vertiv 57. Limits: a small sample for Vertiv (it has traded only since 2020), today’s survivors only, and past odds aren’t promises.
Why These Three, Now?
Applied Materials: the chip machines. It reports on Thursday, Nov. 12. Analysts expect revenue to jump 37% next fiscal year, yet the stock’s price-to-sales multiple has fallen 52% since its late-June peak. One confident 2027 outlook could close that gap.
Vertiv: the power behind AI. It sells the cooling and power gear inside data centers. It fell after the midterms, as Texas’s governor-elect pledged a pause on new data centers, then jumped about 10% on Monday. CoreWeave’s results on Tuesday and Texas’s next steps are the next tests.
MercadoLibre: Latin America’s Amazon. Its price-to-sales multiple has roughly halved since January while sales are expected to grow 29% next year. The holiday shopping season in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina lands before Dec. 31.
The odds favor them; they don’t guarantee anything. Each has been this beaten down before and usually bounced. Each also fell another 15% or more, from 1 time in 45 (Applied) to about 1 in 6 (Vertiv). Size accordingly. We’ll grade all three on Dec. 31.
What Should You Ask Next?
- Applied Materials Stock At $371: Why Is It Half Price?
- Vertiv Stock At $200: Is The Power Trade Back?
- What Is Behind The Move In MercadoLibre Stock?
If you have $1 million or more invested, get a second opinion before year-end in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.