How Will Allison Transmission Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Allison Transmission (NYSE:ALSN) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $11 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.0 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $909 Mil in operating profits and net income of $623 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Allison Transmission’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 74% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 14 positive returns = 4.8%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -8.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/23/2026 | 4.4% | 8.6% | 1.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.4% | -1.0% | 9.8% |
| 8/4/2025 | -1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.1% | 5.7% | 9.5% |
| 2/11/2025 | -12.5% | -9.1% | -17.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | 7.9% | 9.5% | 18.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | 4.0% | 3.4% | 7.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.2% | -7.0% | -5.2% |
| 2/13/2024 | 13.9% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| 10/25/2023 | -10.4% | -9.9% | -4.9% |
| 7/27/2023 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
| 4/27/2023 | 7.0% | 1.1% | 7.1% |
| 2/15/2023 | 10.2% | 4.4% | -7.7% |
| 10/26/2022 | 5.8% | 6.6% | 13.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | -8.2% | -5.7% | -10.9% |
| 4/27/2022 | 5.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% |
| 2/16/2022 | 1.3% | -5.6% | -1.9% |
| 10/27/2021 | 5.8% | 5.3% | 13.0% |
| 7/28/2021 | 1.1% | 0.5% | -4.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.3% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -6.3% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 13.9% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.5% | -9.9% | -17.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -6.9% | 14.8% | 14.2% |
| 3Y History | 24.0% | 51.6% | 17.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Allison Transmission stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Allison Transmission. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| ALSN Earnings Dates | ALSN | DAN |
| 2/23/2026 | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| 2/11/2025 | -12.5% | 7.4% |
| 10/27/2021 | 5.8% | 0.4% |
| CORRELATION | -70.6% |
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