How Will Aflac Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Aflac (NYSE:AFL) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $60 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $17 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.6 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding AFL stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
Aflac’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 3.4%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -4.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | 3.4% | 2.3% | -1.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | 2.2% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.4% | 4.7% | 10.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | -4.7% | -1.6% | -4.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.9% | -4.1% | 1.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -4.8% | -1.4% | 4.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 6.6% | 4.1% | 15.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | -0.6% | 0.3% | 6.9% |
| 1/31/2024 | -9.7% | -6.5% | -4.0% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.4% | 1.6% | 5.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 0.5% | -3.8% | -6.6% |
| 2/1/2023 | -6.0% | -3.8% | -6.0% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.6% | 4.2% | 11.1% |
| 8/1/2022 | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | -2.6% | -1.9% | -2.1% |
| 2/2/2022 | 0.1% | 3.7% | -5.0% |
| 10/27/2021 | -1.1% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 7/28/2021 | 3.4% | 2.1% | 5.5% |
| 4/28/2021 | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.8% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 6.9% | 15.5% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -6.5% | -6.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -24.6% | -7.5% | 7.1% |
| 3Y History | -57.7% | -26.2% | -17.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Aflac stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Aflac. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AFL Earnings Dates | AFL | PRU | HIG |
| 2/4/2026 | 3.4% | -4.7% | 6.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.4% | 1.4% | 5.2% |
| 4/30/2025 | -4.7% | N/A* | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.9% | -5.0% | -0.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -4.8% | N/A* | -6.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 6.6% | N/A* | 8.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -0.6% | 1.6% | -1.9% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.4% | N/A* | 2.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | 5.7% | N/A* | -5.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | 0.5% | N/A* | -1.3% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.6% | N/A* | 3.1% |
| 8/1/2022 | 3.6% | N/A* | 0.9% |
| CORRELATION | -42.7% | 49.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after AFL
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