A 6-Day Winning Streak Has Autodesk Stock Up 16%
Shares of Autodesk (ADSK) have closed higher in each of the last 6 sessions, a cumulative gain of 15.7%. That added about $6.7 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $49.4 billion. The stock closed at $235.05 on Wednesday, October 7, 25.2% below its 52-week high of $314.19 and 25.2% above its low of $187.72.
The Streak Next To The S&P 500
Returns for ADSK and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Wednesday, October 7 and including dividends:
| Return Period | ADSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | 1.6% | -0.2% |
| 6 Days (Current Streak) | 15.7% | 1.7% |
| 1 Month (21 Trading Days) | 10.8% | 1.8% |
| 3 Months (63 Trading Days) | 12.7% | 3.7% |
| Year To Date | -20.6% | 15.0% |
| 1 Year (252 Trading Days) | -27.3% | 17.1% |
How The Streak Compares With The Market
The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 gained 1.7% over the same 6 sessions, including dividends, against Autodesk’s +15.7%. 4 other S&P 500 stocks are currently on winning streaks of 6 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is up 12.7%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 57 sessions of that window it was down 2.6%.
Do The Fundamentals Support The Run?
On the fundamentals, revenue grew 17.9% over the last twelve months, against a median of 17.9% for S&P 500 Information Technology stocks; its operating margin is 27.9%, versus a median of 21.7%; and the stock trades at 30.1 times trailing earnings against a median of 36.3. On these numbers the run has substance behind it: revenue growth above the median, margins above the median and a multiple below the median.
A climb like this is worth respecting, and worth testing. Our Guidance Momentum screen tracks the stocks whose companies just raised their own forward numbers.
One Hot Stock Is A Story. Thirty Sound Ones Are A Strategy
A streak like this earns a place on your watchlist, and it also earns a question: how much of your outcome do you want depending on one company keeping this up?
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio answers it with breadth: roughly 30 businesses picked for consistent cash generation, strong margins, and balance-sheet strength, sized and rebalanced by rules. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Follow the story; invest in the strategy.