How Will Adobe Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, September 10, 2026. The company has $103 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $25 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $9.1 billion in operating profits and net income of $7.2 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Adobe’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 15 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 25% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 17% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 5 positive returns = 3.0%, and median of the 15 negative returns = -7.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 6/11/2026 | -6.8% | -10.8% | 0.9% |
| 3/12/2026 | -7.6% | -8.8% | -11.0% |
| 12/10/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -4.5% |
| 9/11/2025 | -0.3% | 4.8% | -3.7% |
| 6/12/2025 | -5.3% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
| 3/12/2025 | -13.9% | -11.6% | -20.2% |
| 12/11/2024 | -13.7% | -19.8% | -25.0% |
| 9/12/2024 | -8.5% | -10.2% | -15.5% |
| 6/13/2024 | 14.5% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| 3/14/2024 | -13.7% | -10.4% | -17.6% |
| 12/13/2023 | -6.3% | -4.5% | -4.3% |
| 9/14/2023 | -4.2% | -6.9% | -0.6% |
| 6/15/2023 | 0.9% | -1.3% | 8.4% |
| 3/15/2023 | 5.9% | 8.4% | 13.7% |
| 12/15/2022 | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% |
| 9/15/2022 | -16.8% | -22.9% | -20.7% |
| 6/16/2022 | -1.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| 3/22/2022 | -9.3% | -0.03% | -10.5% |
| 12/16/2021 | -10.2% | -10.5% | -17.4% |
| 9/21/2021 | -3.1% | -10.4% | -2.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.6% | -10.3% | -11.8% |
| Max Positive | 14.5% | 16.3% | 23.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -22.9% | -25.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 1D_21D shows the strongest correlation here: if the 1D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the same direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 22.6% | 55.3% | -12.4% |
| 3Y History | 21.3% | 39.8% | -17.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Adobe stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Adobe. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE Earnings Dates | ADBE | CRM | ADSK |
| 6/11/2026 | -6.8% | -0.8% | -4.0% |
| 3/12/2026 | -7.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% |
| 12/10/2025 | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| 9/11/2025 | -0.3% | -4.9% | 9.1% |
| 6/12/2025 | -5.3% | -3.3% | 0.1% |
| 3/12/2025 | -13.9% | -4.0% | -2.9% |
| 12/11/2024 | -13.7% | 11.0% | -8.6% |
| 9/12/2024 | -8.5% | -0.7% | 0.1% |
| 6/13/2024 | 14.5% | -19.7% | 0.6% |
| 3/14/2024 | -13.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| 12/13/2023 | -6.3% | 9.4% | -6.9% |
| 9/14/2023 | -4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| 6/15/2023 | 0.9% | -4.7% | 0.7% |
| 3/15/2023 | 5.9% | 11.5% | -12.9% |
| 12/15/2022 | 3.0% | -8.3% | -5.7% |
| 9/15/2022 | -16.8% | -3.4% | 2.7% |
| 6/16/2022 | -1.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% |
| 3/22/2022 | -9.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 12/16/2021 | -10.2% | -11.7% | -15.5% |
| 9/21/2021 | -3.1% | 2.7% | -9.4% |
| CORRELATION | -27.0% | 4.6% | |
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