Adobe Stock Gained 2.4% Last Week, What’s Next?

-0.60%
Downside
370
Market
368
Trefis
ADBE: Adobe logo
ADBE
Adobe

Adobe’s stock (NASDAQ: ADBE) increased 2.4% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 2.5%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-0.9% vs -5.8%) and one month (0.04% vs -3.1%). 

The technology giant posted better-than-expected results in the fourth quarter of FY2022, released last Friday. It reported total revenues of $4.53 billion – up 10% y-o-y, driven by 10% growth in the digital media segment and a 14% rise in the digital experience unit. Further, the subscription-based revenues increased 11% y-o-y to $4.23 billion. In addition to strong results, the company provided revenue guidance of $4.60 to $4.64 billion for Q1 FY2023. This was the main reason behind the recent stock movement.

Now, is ADBE stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a more than 63% chance of a rise in ADBE stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on  Adobe’s Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: ADBE 0.04%, vs. S&P500 -3.1%; Outperformed market

(64% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Adobe stock improved 0.04% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decrease of 3.1%
  • A change of 0.04% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 64% likelihood event, which has occurred 1611 times out of 2517 in the last ten years.
  • Of these 1611 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 1019 occasions
  • This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ADBE -0.9%, vs. S&P500 -5.8%; Outperformed market

(30% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Adobe stock decreased 0.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) loss of 5.8%
  • A change of -0.9% or more over ten trading days is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 750 times out of 2518 in the last ten years.
  • Of these 750 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 451 occasions
  • This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ADBE 2.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.5%; Outperformed market

(33% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Adobe stock gained 2.4% over a five-day trading period ending 12/16/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 2.5%
  • A change of 2.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 33% likelihood event, which has occurred 833 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
  • Of these 833 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 467 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Dec 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 ADBE Return -2% -40% 229%
 S&P 500 Return -6% -19% 72%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -5% -22% 215%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/19/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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