Can Archer Aviation Stock Fall 30%?
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Shares of Archer Aviation (ACHR) lost 17.1% in the past month, compared with a 5.7% decline for the S&P 500. A 30% drop during a market shock is nothing new for Archer, which has fallen at least that much from a high to a later low across all five shocks it has traded through. So how much further than the market did Archer fall, and how long did the shares take to recover?
Archer Stock Fell Deeper Than The Market, Then Recovered
On average, Archer Aviation stock fell more than twice as far as the S&P 500 during those shocks. When measured from the first close of each shock rather than the high inside it, the shares dropped 30.6%, compared with a 13.4% decline for the index. The deepest of the five drops occurred during the 2022 inflation shock as the Fed tightened, with the stock losing 58.0% against 24.0% for the S&P 500.
In all five shocks, the shares eventually climbed back to the high they reached before the drop. The median recovery from the low took 3.3 months, though the rebound from the 2022 fall lasted 10.0 months. The longest recovery took 13.0 months, following the summer-fall 2023 yield shock.
Archer Aviation Is Selling More, And Losing More
Archer reported $5.0 million of revenue in fiscal Q2 2026, an increase from $1.6 million in the prior quarter. Management said the growth came from operations at the Hawthorne Airport. During the same quarter a year earlier, the company reported almost no revenue. Operating losses also expanded, reaching $279 million in fiscal Q2 2026 compared with $176 million a year earlier.
Archer maintains a cash position that far exceeds its debt, holding $1.56 billion in cash and short-term investments at June 30, 2026, alongside $126 million of debt. Over the twelve months to June 2026, the company burned $681 million of free cash flow, up from $477 million a year earlier. During the same year, its diluted share count rose to 782 million from 579 million, meaning each share is now a smaller slice of the company.
What Risks Does Archer Aviation Face Right Now?
Archer still faces a trade-secret suit from Joby Aero. On October 2, 2026, the company said that a California federal court had dismissed some of Joby Aero’s trade-secret and contract claims, along with Archer’s own counterclaims.
During its August 10, 2026 call, management said it is hard to predict exactly how fast and when the market for passenger air taxis will grow. Archer’s air taxi, Midnight, is not yet certified, and management said the aircraft is in the fourth and final phase of the FAA’s type certification process.
Management does not expect the losses to shrink soon. The company guided for an adjusted EBITDA loss, its own measure, of $170 million to $200 million for fiscal Q3 2026. This matches the range it gave for fiscal Q2, when the loss came in at $177 million. Management targets closing its deal to buy Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid from Boeing by the end of 2026, and aims to keep cash burn relatively flat after the transaction. Archer is paying in its own shares, giving Boeing a strategic stake in the company. Archer is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results in November 2026, and its adjusted EBITDA loss against that guide is the figure to watch.
Beyond ACHR: A Systematic Way To Invest
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