What Happens To Archer Aviation Stock If Its Losses Keep Growing?
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Archer Aviation (ACHR) is spending more than it takes in as it builds its Midnight air taxi. On November 9 it reported a net loss of $274 million for the September quarter, more than double the $130 million of a year earlier. Not all of that loss is paid in cash, but Archer pays for the cash part from what it holds, so how far that cash goes matters to holders. If the losses keep growing, how long can Archer keep paying for them?
Archer Has Cash For Under Two Years Of Spending
At the spending pace of the past twelve months, Archer’s $1.35 billion in cash and short-term investments would last about 1.8 years. Over those twelve months, the company spent $751 million more than it took in. If that outflow keeps growing, the cash will last less than that.
That outflow has grown every quarter over the past year: it was $126 million in the September quarter of 2025, rose to $180 million in the December quarter and has climbed slowly since, to $196 million in the September quarter of 2026. Management expects a larger loss in the December quarter. The company guided to an adjusted EBITDA loss, its own measure, of $185 million to $205 million, compared with $178.5 million in September.
Archer’s sales are too small to offset much of that spending. The September quarter’s revenue of $5.1 million, if it simply repeated for four quarters, would come to $20.4 million. So for a holder, how long the cash lasts depends on the outflow, not on sales.
What Would Wider Losses Cost Archer Shareholders?
If the cash ran low, Archer would need new money. On its November 9 call, management said a $55 million forward equity purchase agreement gives Archer the ability to sell stock in the future, though it will not draw on it automatically. At the past year’s pace of spending, that would cover less than a month. Archer’s diluted share count was 793 million over the latest twelve months, against 661 million a year earlier, so each share is a smaller slice of the company. Boeing is also taking Archer stock, with warrants, as payment for Wisk, SkyGrid and Insitu, and will become Archer’s largest shareholder when the deal closes.
Shareholders also own a stock that has dropped much harder than the broader market in most past shocks. Archer’s shares fell 58% in the 2022 inflation shock, while the SPY fund that tracks the S&P 500 fell 24%. During the 2025 tariff shock, the stock fell 38%, compared with a 19% decline for the index.
What Does Archer Have To Offset Its Losses?
Archer’s biggest offset is a business it has agreed to buy but does not own yet. Management described Insitu as profitable, with over $200 million in annual revenue, against $12.0 million of revenue for Archer over the past twelve months. Revenue is not profit, though, so that figure does not show how much of Archer’s cash outflow Insitu would cover. On the November 9 call, management said only one approval remains and that it expects the deal to close soon. Archer also owes little: its debt of $181 million at the end of September was small beside its cash.
Management will say more about what Insitu adds only after closing. When revenue targets for 2027 for the Boeing businesses came up on the call, management said it looks forward to sharing more then. Archer’s December-quarter guidance, revenue of $5 million to $6 million, leaves the Boeing deal out.
For the risk to be worth taking, the goal management set when it announced the deal has to hold: keeping net cash burn after closing relatively flat. Archer is expected to report its December quarter in March 2027. The deal had not closed by the November 9 call, so that report will not yet show a full quarter of cash burn after closing.
Still Holding Archer Aviation After The Drop?
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