What Will Decide Apple Stock As Memory Costs Rise?
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Apple (AAPL) stock returned 27.9% over the past twelve months, against 9.9% for the S&P 500. On its November 2 call, management guided revenue growth of 7% to 10% for the December 2026 quarter and said that range reflects constrained supply. Below are the events that could move Apple stock over the next six months, soonest first. Which of them matters most, and when will you know?
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Higher memory costs weigh on gross margin, guided at 45% to 46% | fiscal Q1 2027 (the December 2026 quarter) | Against the stock |
| Memory shortages limit Mac and iPad supply | fiscal Q1 2027 (the December 2026 quarter) | Against the stock |
| Services growth guided to 8% to 9%, with mobile gaming and licensing headwinds | fiscal Q1 2027 (the December 2026 quarter) | Against the stock |
| Apple’s fiscal Q1 2027 report, with revenue growth guided at 7% to 10% | January 2027 | Either way |
| iPhone Duo supply catching up with demand | no date stated | Either way |
What Apple Pays For Memory
Memory costs matter most. Apple’s January 2027 report will show what they did to the December 2026 quarter. Management expects memory costs to rise again in that quarter and sees memory prices still climbing after it, with less help over time from memory Apple already holds in inventory.
Tariff refunds added about 1 point to Apple’s gross margin in the September 2026 quarter. Taking tariff refunds out of both the June and September quarters, the margin on Apple’s products fell about 1 point between them, mainly on higher memory costs. Products brought in $82.9 billion of revenue in the September quarter, most of the company’s sales. Apple raised prices on Mac and iPad in June 2026 and on iPhone in September 2026 to offset part of the cost. Management also expects memory shortages to limit Mac and iPad supply in the December quarter, because demand has run higher than it expected. Gross margin, against management’s guide of 45% to 46%, is the figure to watch in January 2027. That guide sits below the September quarter’s 47.9% gross margin, and management expects higher memory costs to drive most of the decline.
Supply Of Apple’s iPhone Duo
Apple introduced the iPhone Duo at its September 2026 launch. On the November 2 call, management said it could not yet predict when supply would meet demand. The Duo is part of Apple’s largest business: iPhone brought in $254 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026, more than half of company sales.
In the September 2026 quarter, iPhone revenue still grew 17% despite supply constraints. Management said the limits on the advanced chip-making capacity behind those constraints are easing. iPhone revenue is the figure to watch when Apple reports in January 2027.
Slower Growth In Apple’s Services
Management expects services revenue to grow 8% to 9% in the December 2026 quarter, after 10% growth in the September 2026 quarter. Services brought in $123 billion in fiscal 2026, about a quarter of Apple’s revenue.
Management named headwinds from mobile gaming, third-party licensing and currency moves. Apple also operates under a U.S. court ruling on App Store transactions that link out of the store. Management says services is still attracting more customers, though, and paid subscriptions grew by double digits in the September 2026 quarter. Services revenue growth, against that guide, is the figure to watch in January 2027.
Can You Hold Apple Stock Through These Dates?
You can hold Apple stock through these dates if a repeat of its worst fall over the past year would not push you to sell. That fall began on December 2, 2025 and took the shares down 13.8% by March 30, 2026. Its sharpest day was a 5.0% drop on February 12, 2026. A report can move the shares quickly too: they fell 8.7% over two trading days around Apple’s July 30, 2026 earnings call.
If a repeat would push you to sell, you hold more Apple stock than you can sit through before gross margin, iPhone revenue and services growth are reported in January 2027.
How Much Apple Do You Already Own?
If you own an S&P 500 or Nasdaq fund, you already own Apple, alongside the same few giants that lead those funds. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio takes a different route: 30 quality companies in equal weight, so no single stock dominates. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.
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