Note: Walmart's FY'26 ended on January 31, 2026. Q1'27 refers to the quarter that ended on April 30, 2026.
For the full fiscal year 2027, Walmart conservatively reiterated its original outlook, forecasting net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted operating income growth of 6% to 8%. Full-year adjusted EPS is still projected to land between $2.75 and $2.85, below the $2.91 analyst expectation. Management attributed this flat outlook to prudently factoring in post-tax-refund consumer softening, competitive retail pricing investments via 7,200 product rollbacks, and persistent supply chain pressure from a $175 million fuel expense headwind expected to linger into the summer.
Below are key drivers of Walmart's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Walmart:
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Walmart at the top of the page.
Walmart is the largest retailer in the world with nearly $715 billion in annual revenues and around 11,000 stores worldwide. The company sells goods across almost all merchandise categories, including groceries, electronics, appliances, apparel, sporting goods, home furnishing products, and drugs, while strictly adhering to its EDLP (everyday low price) strategy. However, it earns around half of its revenues from groceries.
Walmart operates in three business segments: U.S., International, and Sam's Club. Walmart's U.S. segment is the largest segment of its business, accounting for approximately 70% of its revenues. Sam's Club is the retailer's warehouse model, where it charges its customers an annual membership fee, allowing them to buy products at heavy discounts.
The company's most valuable segment is the U.S. segment. Walmart has built a trusted brand with a clear value proposition and expanded across the U.S., resulting in it becoming the nation's largest retailer.
Although Walmart has fewer stores in the U.S. compared to international markets, an average U.S. store is about 3 times as big as the international store in terms of retail square footage. As of fiscal 2026, the square footage per store for Walmart U.S. was 151,500 while that for Walmart International was 48,300. Revenue per square foot for Walmart's U.S. stores in FY 2026 was higher at $692 versus $478 for Walmart's International stores. Thus, despite being fewer in store count, the U.S. segment is more valuable to the company compared to its international segment.
Like any retailer, Walmart's long-term sales and income growth depend largely on the company's ability to open new stores and expand into new markets. However, due to Walmart's size, it runs the risk of cannibalizing its own sales figures in the U.S., thereby effectively competing with itself for market share. This is the reason why Walmart has slowed down its Supercenter expansion in the U.S.
Opening more Supercenters and large format stores may be difficult for Walmart due to its massive presence in the U.S. The company is, therefore, focusing efforts on increasing its store productivity. To achieve this, the retailer has been remodeling its stores and converting its discount stores into supercenters. While Walmart's discount stores offer a wide assortment of general merchandise and a limited variety of food products, its supercenters offer a full-line supermarket and general merchandise.
Walmart's executives have indicated that the retailer's future stores will occupy 8% less space, cost 16% less, and will run more efficiently. The retailer's smaller stores, called Neighborhood market stores, are one-tenth the size of a typical Walmart Supercenter and offer 15,000 items in comparison to 100,000 offered at a Supercenter. Although the size is much smaller, Neighborhood markets offer day-to-day groceries & general merchandise and are focused on attracting customers who shop regularly for their daily needs. This format can be successful in big cities, which have space constraints and where busy schedules limit many customers from driving to a supercenter.
Walmart’s membership program, Walmart+, is priced at $98 per year, below the $139 per year subscription fee for Amazon Prime. Walmart+ offers benefits such as free same-day grocery delivery from stores (on eligible orders), free shipping with no order minimum, fuel discounts at participating gas stations, early access to select sales events, and mobile scan-and-go in stores.
Members also receive early access to major promotional events, including Black Friday deals, allowing them to purchase high-demand items such as electronics, toys, and apparel before inventory becomes available to the general public.
Trade remains a major wild card for the company — and the retail industry — as companies debate how much inventory to order and place bets about where tariff levels will ultimately land. About a third of what Walmart sells in the U.S. comes from other parts of the world, with China, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, and India representing its largest markets for imports. Tariffs on China, in particular, create the greatest cost pressure. Chinese imports account for a high volume in categories such as toys and electronics.
When tariffs are raised, Walmart’s cost of goods sold can increase, putting upward pressure on inventory costs. Management typically responds by absorbing some costs to remain price-competitive or by shifting sourcing to lower-tariff countries, which can mitigate but not eliminate the impact.
