UPS (UPS) Last Update 7/10/26
Related: LUV DAL UAL UNP
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
UPS
$114.51
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$102
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

UPS Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. US Domestic Package (Next Day Air, Domestic Deferred Package, Domestic Ground Package) constitutes 69% of the Trefis price estimate for UPS's stock.
  2. International Package (International Domestic Package, International Export Package, International Cargo) constitutes 21% of the Trefis price estimate for UPS's stock.
  3. Supply Chain and Other Businesses constitute 10% of the Trefis price estimate for UPS's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 FY 2026

Consolidated revenues for the first quarter of 2026 reached $21.2 billion, reflecting a mild contraction due to anticipated domestic volume declines. Non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $1.07, down from $1.49 in the prior year's period but beating consensus Wall Street estimates of $1.02. Financial performance was primarily driven by strong pricing gains that elevated domestic revenue per piece by 6.5% and international revenue per piece by 10.7%, alongside the realization of $600 million in structural cost savings through the company's network reconfiguration and efficiency initiative.

Note: UPS's FY 2025 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY 2026 ended on March 31, 2026.

Acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 Billion

In June 2026, UPS announced a definitive agreement to acquire Andlauer Healthcare Group for approximately $1.6 billion to accelerate the global growth of its specialized healthcare logistics franchise. The transaction integrates a comprehensive network of temperature-controlled warehousing, specialized cold-chain transportation, and last-mile medical delivery services across North America. This strategic pivot significantly enhances UPS Healthcare's capability to safely distribute high-value biologics, specialty therapeutics, and temperature-sensitive weight-loss medications, expanding its presence in highly profitable vertical healthcare markets.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of UPS's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

U.S. Domestic Segment

  • Revenue Per Piece Resilience: Core revenue per piece grew by 6.5% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by base rate optimizations and a deliberate focus on higher-margin small and medium-sized business accounts. Continuous expansion in shipping yields presents a strong upside scenario if pricing discipline offsets broader package volume softness.
  • Network Volume Contraction: Domestic shipping volume faced persistent headwinds as the company executed its structural transition plan, dragging total segment revenue down by 2.3% to $14.12 billion. Prolonged package attrition beyond current management targets poses a downside risk to short-term facility capacity utilization and asset efficiency.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for UPS at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

UPS provides global package delivery, e-commerce fulfillment, and advanced supply chain management solutions worldwide. The enterprise operates through U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions segments, leveraging an integrated air-and-ground delivery network to generate revenue from contractual shipping rates, premium time-definite deliveries, and specialized logistics fees.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The U.S. Domestic Package segment remains the principal driver of baseline enterprise value for UPS because its massive localized logistics presence establishes the foundational scale and delivery density required to support secondary global supply chain services.

Unrivaled Integrated Ground and Air Logistics Infrastructure

UPS controls a deeply integrated, capital-intensive transportation network consisting of automated regional sorting hubs, thousands of local distribution centers, and an expansive delivery fleet. The immense capital commitment, long-term real estate acquisition, and complex regulatory clearances required to mirror this network footprint create a permanent competitive barrier.

High-Margin Specialized Premium Mix Pivot

The company maintains a significant margin advantage by routing a higher percentage of high-value freight through its existing infrastructure, targeting small businesses and complex healthcare clients. By embedding unique capabilities like radio-frequency identification tracking and cold-chain technology, UPS secures sticky enterprise relationships that command superior profit margins over standard consumer retail deliveries.

KEY TRENDS

Strategic Customer Volume Rightsizing and Amazon Glide-Down

The express logistics sector is moving away from low-margin, high-volume consumer contracts to enhance overall network asset efficiency. UPS is actively executing a multi-year plan to intentionally reduce its exposure to lower-yielding Amazon volume by 2 million pieces per day, swapping commoditized deliveries for high-yield B2B and premium small business accounts.

Advanced Facility Automation and Network Capacity Consolidation

Global delivery networks are aggressively implementing advanced robotics and facility reconfigurations to buffer rising labor costs and optimize variable expenses. UPS is accelerating its network optimization strategy to lift automated facility throughput from 66.5% to 68% in 2026, targeting $3 billion in cumulative cost reductions through building closures, flexible operational shifts, and workforce rightsizing.