Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Last Update 7/10/26
Related: LUV DAL UAL JBLU
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Union Pacific Corporation
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Bulk Freight
28.6%
$96
Net Debt
13.8% $46
TOTAL
100%
$334
$287.87
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$293
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Union Pacific Corporation Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Industrial Freight constitutes 36% of the Trefis price estimate for Union Pacific Corporation's stock.
  2. Premium Freight constitutes 30% of the Trefis price estimate for Union Pacific Corporation's stock.
  3. Bulk Freight constitutes 29% of the Trefis price estimate for Union Pacific Corporation's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 FY 2026

Operating revenue reached $6.22 billion, representing a 3% increase year-over-year compared with $6.04 billion in the first quarter of 2025. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose to $2.93, up 9% from $2.70 in the prior year's period. Growth was primarily driven by strong core pricing gains, higher fuel surcharge revenues, and a favorable business mix, combined with record first-quarter workforce productivity that helped cushion a 1% decline in total carload volumes.

Note: Union Pacific Corporation's FY 2025 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY 2026 ended on March 31, 2026.

Surface Transportation Board Accepts Transcontinental Merger Application

In May 2026, the Surface Transportation Board formally accepted for consideration the revised major merger application submitted by Union Pacific Corporation to acquire Norfolk Southern Corporation. This end-to-end combination seeks to create the first single-line transcontinental freight rail network in the United States, spanning 50,000 route miles across 43 states. Management estimates that the combined company will enable faster shipments by bypassing congested mid-continent interchanges, saving shippers an estimated $3.5 billion annually and shifting 2.1 million truckloads from roads to rail.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Union Pacific Corporation's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Bulk and Premium Freight


  • Core Pricing Above Inflation: Union Pacific achieved a favorable price and mix contribution of 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026. Maintaining pricing power above inflation provides significant upside to long-term operating income if volume across agricultural and bulk segments accelerates.

  • International Intermodal Volatility: Total volume dropped 0.75% during the first quarter due to persistent weakness in international intermodal shipments at West Coast ports. Continued import volatility or prolonged economic stagnation poses a downside risk to baseline freight volume targets if domestic truck-to-rail conversion gains flatten out.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Union Pacific Corporation at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Union Pacific Corporation operates one of the largest Class I freight railroad networks in North America, linking 23 states across the western two-thirds of the United States. The company provides critical transportation logistics for a diversified portfolio of bulk, industrial, and premium goods, generating revenue based on volume, distance traveled, and structured fuel surcharge agreements.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The bulk and industrial freight divisions serve as the foundational drivers of value for Union Pacific due to their high revenue per carload, long-term contract structures, and insulated competitive lanes.

Irreplaceable Western Rail Infrastructure Network

Union Pacific controls a vast, continuous rail network connecting key West Coast and Gulf Coast ports with vital midwestern interchange hubs. The immense capital investments and severe regulatory environmental hurdles required to construct a competing right-of-way network establish a virtually unbreakable competitive moat.

Industry-Leading Operating Leverage and Fluidity

Through strict adherence to its precision scheduling model, the railroad optimized asset utilization to achieve an adjusted operating ratio of 59.9% in the first quarter of 2026. This streamlined cost structure guarantees that incremental volume or pricing improvements flow directly into elevated free cash flow generation.

KEY TRENDS

Transcontinental Railroad Consolidation and Highway Conversion

The logistics sector is rapidly shifting toward single-line transcontinental capabilities to remove time-consuming interline handoffs and cut supply chain delays. Union Pacific's landmark proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern highlights this trend, aiming to create a coast-to-coast alternative that can actively capture long-haul market share from traditional trucking lanes.

Asset Optimization and High-Efficiency Fleet Modernization Strategy

Class I railroad operators are focusing heavily on asset velocity and productivity to mitigate stubborn wage and fuel inflation. Union Pacific is executing an aggressive efficiency strategy centered on increasing freight car velocity, reducing terminal dwell hours, and expanding train lengths to move larger quantities of cargo with fewer active assets.