Texas Instruments (TXN) Last Update 5/4/26
Related: INTC AMD NVDA QCOM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Texas Instruments
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Others
4.8%
$13
Net Debt
3.8% $10
TOTAL
100%
$265
$253.60
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$298
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Texas Instruments Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Analog Semiconductors constitute 85% of the Trefis price estimate for Texas Instruments's stock.
  2. Embedded Processors constitute 10% of the Trefis price estimate for Texas Instruments's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal 2026

Texas Instruments reported revenue of $3.85 billion for the first quarter, a 5% sequential increase but down 2% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.35, exceeding analyst expectations despite broader industrial market weakness. Performance was primarily bolstered by a cyclical recovery in personal electronics and steady demand in automotive, which helped mitigate continued inventory digestion in the industrial sector.

Note: Texas Instruments's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Strategic Capacity Expansion at LFAB and SMOS

The company has successfully reached high-volume production milestones at its Lehi, Utah (LFAB) facility and is accelerating the build-out of its Sherman, Texas (SMOS) 300mm wafer fabs. This strategic pivot toward internal 300mm manufacturing is designed to provide a 40% cost advantage over 200mm production used by many competitors, positioning TI to capture market share as industrial and automotive cycles turn upward.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Texas Instruments's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Analog Chips Segment


  • 300mm Cost Efficiency: TI is shifting more production to 300mm wafers, which reduces chip costs by roughly 40%. If TI can migrate 80% of its analog output to these larger wafers by 2027, there is a potential 12% upside to Trefis's long-term gross margin estimates.

  • Industrial Inventory Normalization: Revenue from the industrial end-market has been pressured by customer inventory de-stocking. A faster-than-anticipated return to baseline demand levels could drive a 5% revenue surprise in the Analog segment versus current conservative forecasts.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Texas Instruments at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Texas Instruments is a global semiconductor company that designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing chips for markets such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, and communications equipment.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Analog segment remains the most significant source of value due to the long product life cycles and high switching costs associated with these specialized components.

Proprietary Manufacturing Advantage

TI's investment in internal 300mm manufacturing capacity provides a sustainable cost structure that most fabless or 200mm-reliant competitors cannot match. This allows the company to maintain high gross margins even during pricing wars or cyclical downturns.

Broad and Diversified Portfolio

With over 80,000 products sold to more than 100,000 customers, TI is not dependent on any single buyer or end-market. This massive diversification provides a resilient revenue stream and significant cross-selling opportunities across the industrial and automotive landscapes.

High Switching Costs

Analog components are often designed into a customer's product for a decade or more. Once a TI chip is integrated into a vehicle's braking system or an industrial robot, the cost and technical risk of redesigning the system to accommodate a competitor's chip are prohibitively high, creating a powerful moat.

KEY TRENDS

Increasing Semiconductor Content in Vehicles

The transition toward electric vehicles (EVs) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is significantly increasing the number of analog and embedded chips required per vehicle. TI's strong position in battery management systems and radar sensors allows it to outpace broader automotive production growth.

Capital Expenditure Intensive Growth

TI is currently in the midst of a multi-year, multi-billion dollar capital expenditure cycle to build out domestic U.S. manufacturing. While this pressures free cash flow in the short term, it secures supply chain sovereignty and long-term margin expansion, aligning with global trends toward "onshoring" critical technology.

Focus on Free Cash Flow Per Share

Management remains strictly disciplined on growing free cash flow per share over the long term. Despite high current spending, the company continues to prioritize returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and opportunistic buybacks, maintaining its status as a core holding for value-oriented investors.