Tesla Motors (TSLA) Last Update 7/23/26
Related: MBGAF F HMC GM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Tesla Motors
$261.82
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$342
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Tesla Motors Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Automotive constitutes 76% of the Trefis price estimate for Tesla Motors's stock.
  2. Energy Generation& Storage constitutes 13% of the Trefis price estimate for Tesla Motors's stock.
  3. Service And Other constitutes 11% of the Trefis price estimate for Tesla Motors's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q2 FY'26

Tesla reported record total revenue of $28.24 billion in Q2 FY'26, up 26% year-over-year, driven by record quarterly vehicle deliveries of 480,126 units and 13.5 GWh of energy storage deployments. However, non-GAAP diluted EPS fell 18% year-over-year to $0.33, missing consensus expectations due to a 67% decline in regulatory credit revenue to $146 million and higher operating expenses tied to AI infrastructure, Cybercab manufacturing, and autonomous vehicle development.

Note: Tesla Motors's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q2 FY'26 ended on June 30, 2026.

Cybercab Production and Robotaxi Service Expansion

Tesla commenced Cybercab production at Gigafactory Texas and expanded commercial Robotaxi operations in multiple U.S. metropolitan areas, including Florida. The rollout highlights Tesla's strategic evolution from an electric vehicle manufacturer into an AI and autonomous mobility platform, supported by significant capital expenditures in its Cortex AI supercomputing infrastructure.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Tesla Motors's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Automotive & Energy


  • Automotive Gross Margin ex-Credits: Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits stabilized at around 16.8% in Q2 FY'26, but persistent vehicle price adjustments and shifting regional mix could pressure margins below Trefis baseline estimates if cost-reduction efforts slow.

  • Energy Storage Deployment Growth: Energy storage deployments reached 13.5 GWh in Q2 FY'26, supported by ramping output at the Lathrop and Shanghai Megafactories. Accelerated global utility adoption presents meaningful upside potential relative to conservative long-term model projections.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Tesla Motors at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Tesla Motors designs, develops, manufactures, and services high-performance fully electric vehicles, solar energy systems, and stationary energy storage products, while developing artificial intelligence hardware and autonomous driving software platforms.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Automotive sales generate the vast majority of Tesla's current cash flow, but software licensing, full self-driving technology, and energy storage represent its highest long-term margin potential.

Manufacturing Scale and Battery Cost Efficiency

Tesla maintains a substantial cost advantage over legacy automakers through large-scale giga-casting, proprietary 4680 battery cell production, and high-volume Gigafactory facilities, enabling competitive vehicle pricing while preserving industry-leading unit economics.

Vertical Integration and Full Self-Driving Fleet

Tesla's in-house semiconductor design, dedicated AI training clusters, and millions of active vehicles collecting real-world driving data create a strong moat in autonomous vehicle technology, supporting high-margin software subscription revenues.

Energy Storage and Ecosystem Expansion

The Megapack and Powerwall product lines position Tesla as a key partner in global grid modernization, benefiting from long-term utility-scale contracts and integration with Tesla's proprietary software tools.

KEY TRENDS

Acceleration of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Mobility

The global transportation industry is pivoting toward artificial intelligence, autonomous ride-hailing networks, and advanced driver assistance systems. Tesla is positioning itself as a leader in this transition by directing capital expenditures toward AI compute clusters and fleet operations.

Diversification Beyond Vehicle Manufacturing

Tesla is actively diversifying its revenue mix by growing its energy storage division and expanding high-margin services, reducing overall reliance on cyclical automobile sales and government regulatory credit revenue.

Global EV Competition and Margin Normalization

Intense pricing competition from domestic EV manufacturers in China and Europe is compelling automakers to balance volume growth against profitability, pushing Tesla to continually lower manufacturing costs to protect operating cash flow.