Travelers (TRV) Last Update 2/24/26
Related: MET AIG HIG PRU
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Travelers
$320.82
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$305
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Travelers Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Business Insurance (Workers' Compensation, Commercial Multi-peril, Commercial Automobile & Property, General Liability & Others) constitutes 50% of the Trefis price estimate for Travelers's stock.
  2. Personal Insurance constitutes 26% of the Trefis price estimate for Travelers's stock.
  3. Bond & Specialty Insurance constitutes 21% of the Trefis price estimate for Travelers's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 and Full Year 2025

Travelers reported total revenue of $46.8 billion for FY 2025, a 13% increase over 2024. Net income reached $5.1 billion, or $22.45 per diluted share, compared to $13.22 in the prior year. Growth was driven by strong renewal premium change across all segments and significantly higher net investment income. The consolidated combined ratio improved to 89.2%, reflecting lower catastrophe losses and disciplined underwriting in the Business Insurance and Personal Insurance segments.

Note: Travelers' FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

Record Underwriting Gains and Capital Returns

The company achieved a record underlying underwriting gain of $3.6 billion for the full year, driven by earned premium growth and expense efficiencies. Travelers also returned $2.6 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $1.6 billion in share repurchases and $1.0 billion in dividends. The board recently increased the quarterly dividend by 5% to $1.10 per share, marking the 21st consecutive year of dividend increases.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Travelers' value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Business Insurance Margins

  • Pricing Power and Retention: Travelers maintains high retention rates (86%) while achieving renewal premium changes of over 10%. If the company continues to outpace loss cost trends, there is a 5-8% upside to the Trefis valuation of the Business Insurance segment. However, an unexpected spike in social inflation or legal settlements could compress these margins.
  • Investment Income Accrual: Higher for-longer interest rates have allowed Travelers to reinvest maturing fixed-income securities at higher yields. Net investment income grew 15% in 2025. A rapid decline in benchmark rates would pose a downside risk to the current Trefis earnings forecast for the Bond & Specialty segment.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Travelers at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Travelers is a leading provider of property casualty insurance for auto, home, and business. The company operates through three primary segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. Its business model relies on sophisticated data analytics for risk pricing, a massive independent agency distribution network, and a conservative investment portfolio designed to support claims-paying ability while generating steady income.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Business Insurance segment remains the primary engine of value, contributing over half of the company's total earned premiums and the majority of its technical underwriting profit.

Scale and Distribution Breadth

Travelers holds a top-tier market position in US commercial lines, supported by relationships with over 13,500 independent agents and brokers. This vast network provides a competitive moat by ensuring a steady flow of diverse risks, allowing the company to be selective in its underwriting and maintain a superior combined ratio relative to the industry average.

Advanced Predictive Analytics

The company's investment in claim and underwriting technology, including AI-driven property inspections and geospatial data, allows for highly accurate risk segmentation. This technological edge enables Travelers to price more accurately than smaller peers, particularly in the middle-market and small-business sectors, leading to more stable loss ratios over long cycles.

KEY TRENDS

Persistent Social Inflation

The insurance industry is grappling with "social inflation," where rising litigation costs and larger jury awards inflate casualty claims. Travelers is responding by increasing reserves for older accident years and raising premiums in liability-heavy lines. Their ability to manage these legal trends better than competitors is a key differentiator for 2026.

Personal Lines Recovery

After several years of high loss costs in the Auto and Homeowners segments due to inflation and catastrophes, Travelers has achieved a significant turnaround. Massive rate hikes implemented in 2024 and 2025 have finally caught up to loss trends, leading to a return to profitability in Personal Insurance, which saw a combined ratio improvement of nearly 10 points in the latest fiscal year.