AT&T (T) Last Update 3/12/26
Related: CMCSA VZ TMUS
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
AT&T
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Communication
98.4%
$50.93
Latin America
1.6%
$0.84
Net Debt
39.4% $20.38
TOTAL
100%
$51.77
$31.40
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$28.31
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

AT&T Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Communication constitutes 98% of the Trefis price estimate for AT&T's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 Fiscal Year 2025

AT&T reported Q4 2025 revenue of $33.5 billion, a 3.6% increase year-over-year, beating analyst estimates. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.52, up 20.9% from $0.43 in the prior-year quarter. Growth was primarily driven by strong performance in the Mobility segment and continued expansion in Consumer Fiber. Postpaid phone net adds reached 421,000, while AT&T Fiber added 283,000 subscribers, marking the eighth consecutive year of more than 1 million fiber net adds. These gains were partially offset by a 7.5% revenue decline in Business Wireline as the company manages its transition away from legacy copper-based services.

Note: AT&T's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025.

Acquisition of Lumen Fiber Assets and EchoStar Spectrum

In early 2026, AT&T finalized its acquisition of substantially all of Lumen Technologies' Mass Markets fiber business and closed a $23 billion spectrum deal with EchoStar. The Lumen transaction added more than 1 million fiber subscribers and 4 million locations, immediately expanding AT&T's fiber footprint to 32 states. This strategic pivot accelerates AT&T's "Advanced Connectivity" model, which integrates 5G and fiber services. The company now aims to reach 40 million fiber locations by the end of 2026 and 60 million by 2030, reinforcing its shift toward a converged network architecture.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of AT&T's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Advanced Connectivity (Mobility & Fiber)

  • Fiber-Wireless Convergence: AT&T's convergence rate (customers using both fiber and wireless) rose to 42% in late 2025. Management expects this to drive higher ARPU and lower churn. If convergence rates exceed Trefis estimates as the Lumen assets are integrated, there is significant upside potential for service margins.
  • Postpaid Phone ARPU: While subscriber growth remains steady, Q4 2025 postpaid phone ARPU of $56.57 saw a slight marginal decline due to lower international roaming. Continued pressure on roaming or competitive pricing could pose a downside risk to Trefis revenue projections for the Mobility segment.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for AT&T at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

AT&T is a global telecommunications leader focused on high-speed connectivity through its extensive 5G wireless network and growing fiber-to-the-premises footprint. Following the divestiture of its media assets, the company has simplified its business model to focus on "Advanced Connectivity," leveraging its owned infrastructure to provide converged internet and mobile services to consumer and business segments.

SOURCES OF VALUE

AT&T's value is primarily anchored in its massive wireless subscriber base and its rapidly expanding, high-margin fiber network.

Wireless Network Scale and Spectrum Holdings

With over 74 million postpaid phone customers and the recent $23 billion acquisition of EchoStar spectrum, AT&T maintains a dominant position in the U.S. wireless market. This scale provides a stable foundation of recurring service revenue and high EBITDA margins, supported by a low-volatility business model.

Fiber Infrastructure and First-Mover Advantage

AT&T operates the nation's largest fiber network, reaching over 36 million locations as of early 2026. The high barriers to entry for laying physical fiber and the superior speeds compared to cable allow AT&T to command premium pricing and capture market share in the high-speed broadband sector.

KEY TRENDS

Network Convergence and 5G/Fiber Integration

The industry is shifting toward "Advanced Connectivity," where providers bundle 5G and fiber to increase customer lifetime value. AT&T is leading this trend by reorganizing its reporting structure in 2026 to emphasize converged services, aiming to reach 60 million locations with fiber by 2030 to support the increasing data demands of AI and remote work.

Legacy Copper Decommissioning

AT&T is aggressively executing a cost-transformation strategy by retiring its legacy copper-based infrastructure. The company plans to decommission 100% of its copper network by 2029, a move expected to significantly reduce maintenance costs and improve long-term operating margins despite short-term revenue headwinds in the Business Wireline segment.

Aggressive Capital Return Program

Management has committed to returning over $45 billion to shareholders between 2026 and 2028 through dividends and share repurchases. This plan is supported by an outlook for free cash flow to exceed $18 billion in 2026, signaling a shift from debt reduction toward direct shareholder value creation as leverage ratios approach the 2.5x target.