VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Enterprise & Cloud Storage constitutes 100% of the Trefis price estimate for Seagate's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 FY'26

Seagate reported revenue of $3.63 billion for Q4 FY'26, representing a 48% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP diluted EPS reached $5.71, up 121% from $2.59 in the prior-year period. Full-year revenue reached $12.20 billion. Strong growth and record profitability were driven by robust cloud data center demand for mass capacity storage, pricing discipline, and gross margin expansion supported by HAMR technology execution.

Note: Seagate's FY'26 ended on July 3, 2026.

Commercial Ramp of Mozaic 3+ and HAMR Storage Architecture

Seagate continues to expand volume shipments of its Mozaic 3+ hard drive platform, which utilizes Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology. This architectural leap enables areal densities of 3TB+ per disk, allowing cloud service providers and hyperscalers to expand data storage capacity while optimizing power, cooling, and data center footprint.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Seagate's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

HDD Mass Capacity Shipments

• Cloud Data Center Demand: Hyperscale cloud capital expenditures continue to shift toward AI data workloads, driving higher demand for high-capacity hard drives. Upside exists if cloud migration and AI training data retention accelerate faster than expected, increasing exabyte shipments. Downside risks stem from potential macroeconomic slowdowns or temporary pauses in hyperscale infrastructure buildouts.
• Areal Density & HAMR Execution: Expanding areal density through HAMR technology allows Seagate to deliver higher terabyte capacities per drive at favorable cost structures. Upside lies in faster customer qualification and volume yield improvements for Mozaic platforms. Downside risks include yield bottlenecks or extended qualification cycles among key cloud partners.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Seagate at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Seagate is a leading provider of data storage solutions, primarily designing, manufacturing, and marketing hard disk drives (HDDs) for enterprise, cloud, and consumer markets, alongside solid-state drives (SSDs) and storage subsystems.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Mass capacity storage solutions for enterprise and cloud data centers represent the primary driver of value for Seagate due to superior total cost of ownership in bulk data environments.

Dominance in Enterprise Mass Capacity Storage

Seagate commands a strong market position in high-capacity nearline drives, providing storage infrastructure for major cloud providers, enterprise data centers, and edge environments where cost per terabyte remains paramount.

Technology Leadership in HAMR Architecture

The company's pioneer status in Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording provides a multi-year technology advantage, enabling higher storage density per platter, structurally higher gross margins, and lower unit manufacturing costs relative to legacy recording technologies.

KEY TRENDS

Explosive Expansion of AI-Driven Unstructured Data

The rapid adoption of generative AI models and data analytics is generating massive volumes of unstructured data that require low-cost, scalable long-term storage, benefiting mass capacity HDD vendors over expensive flash storage alternatives.

Focus on Margin Expansion and Disciplined Capital Allocation

Seagate is prioritizing operational discipline, aligning build-to-order manufacturing capacities with firm end-market demand to preserve pricing power, expand gross margins, and generate steady free cash flow for debt reduction and shareholder returns.