VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Company Operated Stores constitute 61% of the Trefis price estimate for Starbucks's stock.
2. Licensed Stores constitute 29% of the Trefis price estimate for Starbucks's stock.
3. CPG, Food Service & Other constitutes 10% of the Trefis price estimate for Starbucks's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q3 FY'26

Starbucks reported Q3 FY'26 consolidated net revenue of $9.3 billion, down 1% year-over-year, reflecting the strategic transition of retail operations in China to a licensed joint venture model. Global comparable store sales grew 7.9%, driven by an 8.1% increase in North America and a 5.7% increase in International markets. GAAP EPS rose 86% year-over-year to $0.91, while non-GAAP EPS expanded 70% to $0.85, exceeding consensus estimates, supported by store-level sales leverage, operating margin expansion, and lower effective tax rates.

Note: Starbucks's FY'25 ended on September 28, 2025. Q3 FY'26 ended on June 28, 2026.

Transition of China Operations to Licensed Joint Venture Model

Starbucks completed the transition of its company-operated retail stores in China into a licensed joint venture structure with Boyu Capital. The transaction lowered capital intensity, provided capital for debt reduction and dividend growth, and shifted regional operations toward a higher-margin licensing revenue model while maintaining brand ownership and an equity interest.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Starbucks's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

North America and International Retail Segments

• North American Same-Store Transaction Growth: Sustained growth in order frequency and traffic across North American stores offers upside to operating leverage. Downside risks remain if consumer discretionary spending softens or promotional activity increases.
• Licensed Store Footprint Expansion: Accelerating international store expansion through licensed partners elevates operational margins. Upside scenario relies on faster unit growth and higher royalty rates across Asian and European markets.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Starbucks at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Starbucks Corporation is a global roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee. The company operates through North America, International, and Channel Development segments, generating revenue from company-operated stores, licensed store royalties, ready-to-drink beverage distribution, and packaged coffee sales.

SOURCES OF VALUE

North America company-operated stores represent Starbucks's largest revenue driver and primary source of operating income.

Global Scale and Recognized Brand Equity

Starbucks operates and licenses over 41,000 stores globally, establishing powerful brand recognition and supply chain scale. Premium positioning enables the company to exercise pricing power and mitigate raw coffee commodity inflation.

Digital Ecosystem and Rewards Program

The Starbucks Rewards program and integrated mobile ordering platform drive strong repeat purchase frequency, customer retention, and peak-hour operational throughput across company-operated stores.

KEY TRENDS

Operational Efficiency and Store-Level Workflows

Through its Back to Starbucks operational strategy, the company is refining store workflows and equipment automation to improve speed of service, reduce peak-time order wait times, and drive transaction conversion.

Asset-Light International Expansion Strategy

Starbucks is leaning into licensed partnership models for global growth, reallocating capital toward strategic investments, debt reduction, and shareholder returns while securing recurring high-margin royalty streams.