SAP (SAP) Last Update 7/10/26
Related: MSFT ADBE ORCL CRM
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
SAP
$258.51
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$209
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

SAP Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Cloud subscriptions constitute 75% of the Trefis price estimate for SAP's stock.
  2. Software Support constitutes 21% of the Trefis price estimate for SAP's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

SAP SE reported a strong start to the fiscal year with total revenue increasing 6% year-over-year to 9.56 billion euros, which represents a 12% expansion at constant currencies. Non-IFRS basic earnings per share climbed 20% to 1.72 euros, beating analyst consensus expectations of 1.44 euros. Financial performance was primarily driven by exceptional operational execution within the core cloud business, where cloud revenues surged 19% to 5.96 billion euros and the high-margin Cloud ERP Suite revenue expanded 23% to 5.21 billion euros.

Note: SAP's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Strategic Agreement to Acquire Reltio for Business Data Cloud Scaling

SAP SE announced its definitive agreement to acquire master data management leader Reltio, which completed its initial structural integration phase on May 7, 2026. This strategic acquisition directly reinforces SAP's Business Data Cloud architecture, embedding advanced real-time data clean rooms and multi-tenant data unification capabilities directly into the core SAP Business Technology Platform. The combination allows enterprise clients to effectively consolidate siloed operational datasets across hybrid ecosystems and accelerate the deployment of contextualized business artificial intelligence models.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of SAP's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Cloud and Software


  • Cloud Backlog Expansion Pace: SAP's current cloud backlog increased 20% to 21.93 billion euros, up 25% at constant currencies due to strong global adoption of Rise with SAP and Grow with SAP offerings. Trefis models sustained cloud adoption, but accelerated large-deal migration containing embedded artificial intelligence features presents an upside scenario to our revenues.

  • Software License Revenue Erosion: Traditional software licenses and legacy support revenue contracted 12% to 2.59 billion euros as enterprises structurally transition to subscription-based models. Persistent delays in on-premise cloud migrations within conservative European client cohorts present downside risks to expected short-term cash flow optimization.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for SAP at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

SAP SE operates as a dominant global leader in enterprise application software, cloud management systems, and business artificial intelligence solutions, providing integrated operations frameworks spanning finance, supply chain, human resources, and procurement.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Cloud and Software segment serves as the central foundation for SAP's premium valuation due to its high-margin recurring contract streams and massive enterprise digital infrastructure stickiness.

Cloud ERP Suite Monopolization

The company commands high pricing power and a substantial competitive moat through its flagship S/4HANA Cloud platforms, serving as the digital backbone for major multinational corporations and generating long-term recurring revenue.

Business Technology Platform Ecosystem Lock-In

The SAP Business Technology Platform integrates application development, data analytics, and artificial intelligence capabilities across a massive global customer base, creating severe switching friction and expanding customer lifecycle value.

KEY TRENDS

Enterprise Adoption of Embedded Business Artificial Intelligence

Global software consumption patterns continue to shift heavily toward autonomous workflows and generative capabilities, driving rapid corporate uptake of SAP's Joule copilot and automated ERP data migration tools across large-scale commercial contracts.

Operational Restructuring and Margin Optimization Focus

Management is focusing its core corporate strategy on organizational simplification, restructuring customer-facing divisions under a unified global leadership structure while leveraging internal automation to achieve significant structural cost savings.