- Iron Ore constitutes 73% of the Trefis price estimate for Rio Tinto's stock.
- Aluminum constitutes 10% of the Trefis price estimate for Rio Tinto's stock.
- Diamonds & Minerals constitute 9% of the Trefis price estimate for Rio Tinto's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- Q2 2022 Earnings
Rio Tinto posted a weaker than expected set of Q2 2022 results, with adjusted earnings falling 29% year-over-year to $5.32 per share. While the decline was largely driven by weakness in iron ore prices, the company's production and margins are also being impacted by higher costs and labor shortages. Rio has also cut its interim dividend in half, with the payout expected to stand at $4.3 billion versus the $9.1 billion it returned in the same period last year.
- Share price volatility
The shares of Rio Tinto have observed a 20% contraction in value since early April after observing a rally in early 2022, primarily due to renewed restriction measures in China – raising concerns of a broad-based demand crunch in the coming years. However, EIA’s lower benchmark oil projections for 2023 and prospects of leniency in China’s Zero-Covid policy after Shanghai’s announcement to end lockdowns. Thus, improvement in China’s industrial output is likely to assist beaten commodity prices as durable goods production rates rise. Moreover, Investments in the renewable energy sector including electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, and solar & wind power plants are key markers supporting long-term demand for iron, aluminum, and copper.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of Rio Tinto's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Rio Tinto:
Average realized prices of Iron Ore
- Average realized prices of iron ore: The structural change initiated in China has largely impacted global iron ore prices by widening the price gap between high-grade ore and low-grade ores. Producers of higher-grade ores are able to charge a substantial amount of premium for their products and the expected to continue to do so in the near future. In the long term, if Chinese demand grows faster than anticipated, driving up Rio's realized iron ore prices to $120 per ton by the end of the forecast period, as opposed to $106 in the base case, it would represent an upside of around 3% to our price estimate.
Rio Tinto Group is a diversified mining and resources group, headquartered in London and Melbourne. The company has operations across six continents, but these are mainly concentrated in Australia and Canada. The company has a number of subsidiaries, each focusing on one of the different product types in the company's portfolio. The company has a principal focus on mining of primary ore for metals. It also owns a number of high-capacity smelting facilities for aluminum and refining facilities for copper & gold.
SOURCES OF VALUE
The company's Iron Ore division is the most valuable division for the following reasons:
The iron ore segment accounts for around 64% of the company's revenues and nearly 80% of its EBITDA. These numbers may decline only marginally over the next few years. The division will still contribute a majority of the company's profits. The company has long-term contracts with iron and steel manufacturers worldwide, securing the interests of its mining operations.
Potential impact of the U.S. government's infrastructure plan
The U.S. government has planned a ten year overhaul of domestic infrastructure, with a particular focus on transportation infrastructure. The implementation of this infrastructure plan, once it has been passed by Congress, is expected to sharply boost U.S. demand for copper and iron ore, which should translate into improved pricing environments for these commodities.
Sustainability of Chinese iron ore demand
Chinese economic growth has been declining over the past few years. The Chinese government instituted a fiscal stimulus targeting the infrastructure sector in 2016, in order to revive growth. Though the fiscal stimulus has boosted the demand outlook for iron ore, demand growth in China has occurred at a lower rate than expected, as indicated by the rising stockpiles of iron ore. This has raised questions about the sustainability of Chinese iron ore demand. However, it is to be seen if the stimulus measures post Covid crisis will lead to sustainable growth in iron ore demand and prices
Aluminum as a replacement for other materials and metals
- Aluminum is lightweight and its use in cars can help reduce weight and thus emissions.
- Aluminum is durable and requires lower maintenance (corrosion resistant) compared to other metals and is hence finding its applications in the construction industry.
- The unique characteristics of aluminum, such as malleability and ductility, help in the fabrication, storage, and distribution of retail products. It is thus being widely used in the packaging industry as well.