Rio Tinto (RIO) Last Update 8/4/26
Related: CLF FCX VALE
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Rio Tinto
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Iron Ore
60.4%
$79
Copper
25.7%
$34
Aluminum
13.8%
$18
Net Debt
18.3% $24
TOTAL
100%
$131
$106.69
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$103
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Rio Tinto Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Iron Ore constitutes 60% of the Trefis price estimate for Rio Tinto's stock.
  2. Copper constitutes 26% of the Trefis price estimate for Rio Tinto's stock.
  3. Aluminum constitutes 14% of the Trefis price estimate for Rio Tinto's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: H1 FY'26

Rio Tinto's revenue for the half year ended June 30, 2026 rose to $31.03 billion, up 15.5% from $26.87 billion a year earlier. Net income came in at $6.66 billion versus $4.53 billion in the prior-year period, while basic earnings per share from continuing operations climbed to $4.10 from $2.79, an increase of roughly 47%. The jump was driven primarily by copper, where underlying EBITDA surged 84% to $5.7 billion on the back of the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and stronger prices, alongside record first-half Pilbara iron ore volumes and continued gains from the group's cost and productivity program.

Note: Rio Tinto's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. H1 FY'26 ended on June 30, 2026.

Simandou Nears First Ore as Copper Costs Fall Sharply

The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea continues to de-risk, with mine construction around 77% complete and port and marine infrastructure roughly 85% complete. Full rail commissioning was achieved in the first quarter, and first ore through the primary crusher is still expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. At the same time, management cut its 2026 copper C1 net unit cost guidance to 30 to 50 cents per pound from 65 to 75 cents, underscoring how quickly the copper division's economics are improving as Oyu Tolgoi output scales up.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Rio Tinto's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Copper

  • Oyu Tolgoi Ramp-Up: Copper production rose 31% year-over-year in the first half, and Rio Tinto's guidance of 800 to 870 kilotonnes for 2026 remains unchanged. Continued execution on schedule would support further upside to copper's contribution to group EBITDA, while any underground ramp-up delays would pressure the segment's near-term valuation.
  • Unit Cost Trajectory: The reduction in 2026 C1 net unit cost guidance to 30 to 50 cents per pound signals a materially more profitable copper business than the market may have priced in. If costs hold near the low end of that range, copper margins could expand further; a reversal driven by input cost inflation or lower ore grades would be a downside risk.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Rio Tinto at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Rio Tinto is a diversified global miner producing iron ore, aluminium, copper, and minerals including lithium and borates, with operations spanning Australia, Canada, Mongolia, Guinea, and other regions, generating revenue primarily through the sale of these commodities to steelmakers, manufacturers, and industrial customers worldwide.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Iron ore remains Rio Tinto's largest and most consistent source of value, anchored by the scale and quality of its Pilbara operations.

Pilbara Scale and Quality

The Pilbara system delivered its highest first-half production since 2018, with volumes up 6% year-over-year to 162.3 million tonnes and Q2 sales up 7%. This scale, combined with the region's high ore grades and integrated rail and port infrastructure, gives Rio Tinto a persistent cost advantage over higher-cost seaborne suppliers.

Portfolio Diversification

Copper and aluminium together now represent nearly 60% of group EBITDA, reducing Rio Tinto's historical dependence on iron ore pricing cycles. The growing weight of copper in particular ties the group's earnings more closely to electrification and data center-driven demand rather than steel markets alone.

KEY TRENDS

Electrification and AI-Driven Copper Demand

Copper demand tied to electrification, grid buildout, and AI-related data center infrastructure continues to support prices and investment appetite for new supply. Rio Tinto is positioning for this through the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and early-stage growth options at Resolution and Winu, alongside a lithium business that grew production 53% year-over-year in the first half on the Rincon, Sal de Vida, and Fenix 1B ramp-ups.

Productivity Program and Capital Discipline

Rio Tinto banked $870 million in productivity benefits in the first half, on track toward an annualized run-rate target of $1.8 billion. Combined with a 75% jump in free cash flow to $3.8 billion, this supported a 43% increase in the interim dividend to $2.11 per share, a 50% payout ratio and the highest interim dividend in four years, reflecting a continued strategic emphasis on shareholder returns alongside growth investment.