Qualcomm (QCOM) Last Update 3/12/26
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% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Qualcomm
$176.96
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$150
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Qualcomm Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. CDMA Technologies constitute 86% of the Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm's stock.
  2. Technology Licensing constitutes 14% of the Trefis price estimate for Qualcomm's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal 2026

Qualcomm reported revenue of $10.24 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, representing a 3% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $2.69, a 2% decline compared to the same period last year. Performance was primarily driven by the handset segment, which contributed $6.18 billion, and a significant 58% growth in the automotive business as the company executes its diversification strategy beyond smartphones.

Note: Qualcomm's FY'25 ended on September 28, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on December 28, 2025.

Snapdragon 8 Elite and AI Integration

The launch of the Snapdragon 8 Elite mobile platform marks a strategic pivot toward high-performance on-device generative AI. By utilizing the custom Oryon CPU architecture across its mobile portfolio, Qualcomm is positioning itself to capture higher ASPs (Average Selling Prices) as smartphone OEMs integrate sophisticated AI features. This move strengthens Qualcomm's competitive moat against MediaTek and internal silicon efforts by major handset manufacturers.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Qualcomm's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

QCT Semiconductor Segment


  • Automotive Design Win Pipeline: Qualcomm's automotive design win pipeline has reached approximately $45 billion. This represents a massive growth lever compared to historical Trefis estimates that focused heavily on mobile. If the company successfully converts this pipeline into consistent double-digit annual revenue growth, there is significant upside to current valuation models.

  • AI PC Market Share: The rollout of Snapdragon X Series processors for Windows PCs marks Qualcomm's formal entry into the computing space. While Trefis estimates currently bake in modest gains, a faster-than-expected transition to ARM-based AI PCs could disrupt the Intel/AMD duopoly and provide a new high-margin revenue stream.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Qualcomm at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Qualcomm is a global leader in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry, operating through two primary reporting segments: QCT, which develops CDMA-based and other wireless processors, and QTL, which grants licenses to use its extensive intellectual property portfolio.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Qualcomm's primary source of value stems from its dual-engine model of high-volume chip sales paired with high-margin licensing of essential wireless patents.

Standard Essential Patent Dominance

Qualcomm owns a vast portfolio of patents essential to 5G and previous generations of mobile connectivity. This creates a high-margin recurring revenue stream through the QTL segment, as virtually every mobile device manufacturer globally must pay royalties to Qualcomm, regardless of whether they use Qualcomm chips or those of a competitor.

Premium Android Ecosystem Leadership

The company maintains a dominant position in the premium and high-tier Android smartphone market. Its Snapdragon brand is the industry standard for performance, and its tight integration of modem, CPU, and GPU technologies makes it the preferred partner for leading OEMs like Samsung and Xiaomi, ensuring stable demand in the high-end mobile segment.

KEY TRENDS

On-Device AI Transformation

The industry is shifting from cloud-based AI to on-device processing to reduce latency and improve privacy. Qualcomm is positioned at the center of this trend, as its NPU (Neural Processing Unit) technology is specifically designed for the power-efficient execution of large language models on edge devices like phones and laptops.

Diversification into IoT and Automotive

To reduce its sensitivity to the cyclical smartphone market, Qualcomm is aggressively pivoting toward the "Intelligent Edge." This involves leveraging its mobile R&D to power digital cockpits and ADAS in vehicles, as well as industrial IoT applications, effectively expanding its total addressable market beyond the mobile handset.