PepsiCo (PEP) Last Update 3/9/26
Related: CMG KO MCD SBUX
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
PepsiCo
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
PFNA
38.3%
$78
PBNA
18.2%
$37
EMEA
17.4%
$36
LatAm Foods
14.0%
$29
Net Debt
13.5% $28
TOTAL
100%
$204
$176.51
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$161
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

PepsiCo Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. PFNA constitutes 38% of the Trefis price estimate for PepsiCo's stock.
  2. PBNA constitutes 18% of the Trefis price estimate for PepsiCo's stock.
  3. EMEA constitutes 17% of the Trefis price estimate for PepsiCo's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 and Full Year 2025

PepsiCo reported full-year 2025 organic revenue growth of 4.2%, while reported net revenue reached approximately $95.8 billion, a 3% increase over the prior year. Core earnings per share (EPS) for the year rose 8% to $8.24, driven by effective net pricing and productivity gains across the Frito-Lay and International segments. While North American beverage volumes remained soft due to cautious consumer spending, strong performance in emerging markets and disciplined cost management offset domestic headwinds.

Note: PepsiCo's FY'25 ended on December 27, 2025.

Strategic Expansion into Functional Beverages

PepsiCo has accelerated its "Beyond the Bottle" strategy by increasing investment in its functional beverage portfolio, specifically targeting the rapid growth of the Celsius distribution partnership and the relaunch of Gatorade's expanded wellness line. This pivot aims to capture the health-conscious demographic as traditional carbonated soft drink volumes face secular stagnation. The company is also integrating more localized supply chain AI to optimize inventory levels across its massive North American DSD (Direct Store Delivery) network.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of PepsiCo's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Frito-Lay North America

  • Operating Margin Expansion: PepsiCo's snack division continues to command industry-leading margins through premiumization and smaller pack sizes. If productivity initiatives exceed the current Trefis estimate of 18%, there is significant upside potential for overall valuation.
  • Volume Elasticity: Sustained price increases over the last 24 months have begun to test consumer price sensitivity. A faster-than-expected recovery in unit volume as inflation cools could provide a boost to market share figures.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for PepsiCo at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

PepsiCo is a global food and beverage leader with a diverse portfolio of iconic brands including Pepsi, Lay's, Gatorade, and Quaker. The company utilizes a powerful integrated business model, leveraging a massive global distribution network and a "Better-for-You" product shift to maintain consistent cash flow and dividend growth.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The diversification between snacks and beverages provides a resilient hedge against shifting consumer preferences and localized economic downturns.

Dominant Snack Portfolio

Frito-Lay North America remains the company's most significant value driver, holding a commanding share of the savory snacks market. Its scale allows for immense bargaining power with retailers and a cost structure that competitors struggle to match, particularly in the impulse-buy channel.

Global Distribution Scale

PepsiCo possesses one of the world's most sophisticated Direct Store Delivery systems. This infrastructure enables the company to launch new products rapidly and maintain high on-shelf availability, creating a formidable moat in both developed and emerging markets.

KEY TRENDS

Shift Toward Health and Wellness

Consumers are increasingly moving away from high-sugar beverages toward functional waters, energy drinks, and zero-sugar variants. PepsiCo is aggressively repositioning its portfolio to ensure these high-growth categories represent a larger portion of its total revenue mix.

Supply Chain Digital Transformation

The company is undergoing a multi-year digital overhaul, using predictive analytics to minimize waste and optimize delivery routes. This strategic shift is designed to protect margins against volatile commodity costs and labor pressures.