Oracle (ORCL) Last Update 7/16/26
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% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Oracle
$222.65
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$153
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Oracle Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Cloud services and license support constitutes 96% of the Trefis price estimate for Oracle's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q4 Fiscal 2026

Oracle reported record Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of 19.2 billion dollars, a 21 percent increase year-over-year. GAAP earnings per share rose 21 percent to 1.45 dollars, while non-GAAP earnings per share increased 24 percent to 2.11 dollars. Growth was fueled by a 47 percent surge in total cloud revenues, led specifically by a 93 percent jump in Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue as enterprise demand for AI training and inferencing continues to accelerate.

Note: Oracle's FY'26 ended on May 31, 2026. Q4 FY'26 ended on May 31, 2026.

Aggressive AI Infrastructure Expansion

Oracle has significantly ramped up its capital investment program to meet unprecedented demand for AI Cloud Infrastructure. The company reported a record 638 billion dollars in remaining performance obligations, driven by massive, long-term AI contracts that include significant customer prepayments for GPU capacity, allowing Oracle to scale its data center footprint rapidly while managing its broader capital funding strategy.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Oracle's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Cloud and License Revenues


  • Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Momentum: Growth in IaaS revenue is currently outpacing expectations at 93 percent year-over-year. Continued success in securing large-scale AI cloud contracts could lead to an upside scenario for revenue per client metrics compared to the current Trefis estimate.

  • Capital Intensity and Cash Flow: While massive investment in data centers is fueling top-line growth, the high capital expenditure requirement has resulted in negative free cash flow for fiscal 2026. Future upside depends on the company's ability to maintain these high growth rates as it raises additional capital to fund its aggressive expansion plans.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Oracle at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Oracle Corporation is a global leader in enterprise software and cloud computing. The company provides a comprehensive stack of applications and infrastructure, including the Oracle Autonomous Database, cloud-native enterprise resource planning, and human capital management software. Its business model is defined by a rapid transition from traditional on-premise software licensing to high-margin recurring cloud subscription revenues, particularly within its high-performance IaaS segment.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure is currently the most valuable driver as it facilitates the company's transition to a modern cloud-first business model.

Database Software Dominance

Oracle maintains a substantial moat in the enterprise database market, supported by a massive, entrenched installed base of mission-critical applications that are deeply integrated into global corporate operations.

Cloud Infrastructure Scalability

The company has successfully leveraged its massive capital investment in high-performance cloud clusters to offer competitive pricing and performance for heavy AI workloads, resulting in a rapidly expanding cloud services ecosystem.

KEY TRENDS

Generative AI Adoption

The explosion of generative AI has fundamentally shifted the demand profile for cloud infrastructure. Oracle has positioned itself as a preferred provider for AI training due to its specialized high-speed networking, efficient data center architecture, and broad availability of leading GPU hardware.

Modernization of Legacy ERP

Oracle is aggressively driving its installed base to move from legacy on-premise ERP systems to its modern cloud-based Fusion Cloud applications, creating a stable, recurring revenue stream while increasing customer stickiness through integrated data platforms.