VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- Book Publishing constitutes 36% of the Trefis price estimate for News Corp's stock.
- Dow Jones constitute 24% of the Trefis price estimate for News Corp's stock.
- News Media constitutes 22% of the Trefis price estimate for News Corp's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- News Corp Q1 2026 Snapshot
News Corp (NASDAQ: NWSA) delivered a solid start to FY 2026 with Q1 revenue of US $2.14 billion, up approximately 2 % year-over-year, and total segment EBITDA of US $340 million, a 5 % increase from the prior year. Adjusted EPS came in at US $0.22, beating consensus estimates of around US $0.19. The growth was driven by strong performances in the Dow Jones professional information business (revenue up ~6 % to US $586 million), along with digital real-estate services (up ~5 %). However, legacy‐business pressures remain: the book-publishing division saw a ~2 % revenue decline and a US $13 million write-off tied to a distributor closure.
Note: News Corp's FY'25 ended on June 30, 2025.
- Outlook
News Corp’s outlook for FY 2026 and the upcoming Q2 is cautiously optimistic, with management emphasizing expectations for strong free cash flow for the full year and highlighting the acceleration of its share-buyback program as a sign of confidence. The company expects the Dow Jones professional information business to maintain steady B2B momentum, while the digital real-estate segment should benefit from improving housing-market activity as Q2 unfolds. Management also noted improving trends in book publishing, with healthier ordering patterns heading into the quarter, and expects the news-media division to continue delivering margin improvements through disciplined cost control despite modest revenue growth.
- Sale of Foxtel
News Corp sold its Australian cable TV unit Foxtel to British-owned sports network DAZN for 3.4 billion Australian dollars ($2.1 billion), including debt, cutting the media empire’s exposure to a business upended by streaming platforms. Foxtel, launched by News Corp in 1995, has dragged profits due to declining subscribers switching to cheaper streaming services like Netflix. Despite efforts to diversify with streaming services like Kayo and ESPN, soaring sports broadcasting rights costs and shrinking revenue hurt earnings, leading Foxtel to share rights with free-to-air broadcasters to offset expenses.
DAZN is a London-headquartered global streaming platform available in North America, Europe, and Asia. DAZN competes against traditional TV and satellite channels and provides access to a range of sports content, including American football, boxing, and baseball, over its streaming platform.
Upon reclassification of Foxtel’s results, the Subscription Video Services segment ceased to be a reportable segment, and the residual results of the segment were aggregated into the News Media segment.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below we highlight key drivers of News Corp's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for News Corp.
Digital Real Estate
- Digital Real Estate Revenues: News Corp through REA offers digital advertising solutions to help real estate agents sell or rent properties and win new listings. The company generates revenues from advertising. REA owns and operates Australia's largest residential property website, realestate.com.au, and Australia's largest commercial property site, realcommercial.com.au. Moreover, the company acquired Move Inc. in the U.S. which will further drive the company's revenues. We estimate that segment revenues will grow from $1.8 billion in FY2025 to approximately $2.8 billion by the end of our forecast period. However, driven by a surge in housing demand in Australia and benefits from the Move group of websites, digital real estate could grow at a higher rate. There could be an upside of more than 7% to the Trefis price estimate for News Corp's stock if the segment revenues were to increase to $3.5 billion by the end of our forecast period. On the other hand, if the real estate ad marketplace tends to be softer, it could lead to slower-than-expected advertising growth for News Corp. If the revenues only grow to around $2.0 billion during the Trefis forecast period, there could be an 8% downside to our price estimate.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
News Corp is a diversified media and information services company. The Company operates in four segments: Dow Jones, Digital Real Estate Services, News Media, and Book Publishing. The company distributes its content under various popular brands, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's Group, Herald Sun, and HarperCollins Publishers.
The Wall Street Journal, published by News Corp, is the leading circulation daily newspaper in the U.S., with an average print and digital circulation of approximately 4.5 million.
SOURCES OF VALUE
News Corp’s value is anchored in its high-margin digital and subscription businesses, notably Dow Jones (Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, B2B information services) and its stakes in online real estate platforms like REA Group and Realtor.com, which provide scalable, recurring revenue. Supporting this are HarperCollins, a stable cash-generating book publisher, and News Media, where print headwinds persist but digital subscriptions and advertising still contribute cash flow.
KEY TRENDS
Growth In Digital Content
Online media provides more abundant information, at a faster rate and cheaper prices when compared to print media. This has effectively rendered print newspapers obsolete, and as online reading is further made easier by tablets/smartphones, both physical circulation and print advertising within newspapers would likely see a decline going forward.
Migration To Other Media Alternatives
News Corp's businesses face competition from other sources of news, information, and entertainment content delivery, and consumers are migrating to other media alternatives. This reflects general trends in the newspaper industry, including declining newspaper buying by younger audiences and consumers' increasing reliance on the internet for the delivery of news and information, often without charge.
Social Media To Drive Future Growth
Social media is not the core revenue engine itself, but it can serve as a high-ROI marketing pipeline, boosting subscriptions, advertising, and engagement across News Corp’s digital assets. Platforms like X (Twitter), LinkedIn, Instagram, and TikTok are where readers increasingly discover news. By leveraging curated snippets, short-form video, and headline-driven content, News Corp can funnel users into paid subscriptions for Dow Jones, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other titles. News Corp can also monetize engagement through branded content, affiliate deals, and performance-based campaigns distributed via social channels, diversifying beyond print and traditional display ads.
