nVIDIA (NVDA) Last Update 11/20/25
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% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
nVIDIA
$153.44
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$183
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

nVIDIA Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Compute & Networking constitutes 96% of the Trefis price estimate for nVIDIA's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Q3 FY'25 Earnings

Nvidia posted a better-than-expected set of Q3 FY'26 results amid strong demand for its graphics processing units used in artificial intelligence applications. Revenue came in at $57 billion for the quarter, up 62% from a year ago. Earnings stood at $1.31 per share, up from $0.79 per share in the year-ago quarter. Nvidia says that its Blackwell GPUs are experiencing unprecedented demand, with cloud GPUs sold out amid the ongoing AI boom.

Note: Nvidia's FY'25 ended on January 26, 2025. Q3 FY'26 ended on October 26, 2025.

Chinese Market Access

In early July 2025, Nvidia said it had received assurances from the Trump administration that it could resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China, reversing an April ban that had cost it billions and reopening a key growth market. But by Q3 2025, H20 sales in China remained relatively low as geopolitical pressure, regulatory scrutiny, and security concerns from Chinese authorities continued to limit adoption, with the government cautioning firms such as Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent to favor domestic alternatives.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Nvidia's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Nvidia:

Compute & Networking

  • We currently forecast Nvidia's Compute & Networking revenues are expected to increase from $116 billion in FY 2025 (year ended January 26, 2025) to $560 billion by the end of the Trefis forecast period. However, if sales grow to over $700 billion by the end of our review period, driven by stronger demand from data centers, we could see a 15% upside to our price estimate.

For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Nvidia at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

While Nvidia is best known for its graphics processing units, which are essentially a high-performance processor that generates realistic graphics for gaming on computers, the company expanded to several other large and important computationally-intensive areas. Nvidia's GPUs are now much sought after for workloads including artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and cryptocurrency mining. The company is a fabless semiconductor vendor, as it outsources its fabrication to specialized foundries. The company's products are now used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets.

SOURCES OF VALUE

We believe that the Compute & Networking segment is the biggest driver of Nvidia's value. The division grew by over 2x in FY'25, emerging as Nvidia's biggest business segment with over $110 billion in revenue. Moreover, we believe the segment has stronger long-term growth potential as well, given that demand is driven by important trends in the computing industry, including the deployment of artificial intelligence capabilities by cloud vendors, the development of autonomous driving technology, and cryptocurrency mining.

KEY TRENDS

Surging Demand For Generative AI applications

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has captured the imagination of the world following the launch of the viral ChatGPT chatbot. Technology companies and developers have been scrambling to deploy generative AI into their applications, and investors are counting on this to drive a windfall of sorts for Nvidia, whose server chips remain the go-to products for AI workloads. Artificial intelligence workloads require a considerable amount of computing capacity, shifting the power balance away from central processing units made by the likes of Intel to Graphics processors, a market in which Nvidia dominates.

Competition Across the AI Stack

Nvidia is estimated to hold well over 70% % of the AI GPU market, underpinning its dominance. Meanwhile, competition is heating up, with companies like Google unveiling advanced custom AI chips (such as “Ironwood”) and Qualcomm targeting edge-AI with power-efficient processors.

Expansion of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) & Self-Driving Car Technologies To Drive Growth in the Automotive Segment

The automotive segment is a fast-growing sub-segment of Nvidia's Compute & Networking business. The company has been working on building its automotive computing platform for over a decade and is in a strong position to leverage this growth.