nVIDIA (NVDA) Last Update 5/27/26
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% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
nVIDIA
$200.15
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$205
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

nVIDIA Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Compute & Networking constitutes 95% of the Trefis price estimate for nVIDIA's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2027

Nvidia delivered record-breaking results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, posting total revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.87, representing a 140% increase from the prior year. Financial performance was primarily propelled by continuous strength in Data Center operations, which surged 92% to $75.2 billion as enterprise and hyperscaler clients aggressively deployed next-generation AI hardware clusters.

Note: Nvidia's FY'26 ended on January 25, 2026. Q1 FY'27 ended on April 26, 2026.

Capital Allocation Shift and Massive Share Repurchase Expansion

Alongside blockbuster financial results, Nvidia announced an aggressive expansion of its capital return program, implementing a 25-fold quarterly dividend hike to $0.25 per share. Furthermore, the board authorized an additional $80 billion in share repurchases on top of its existing capacity, signaling extreme confidence in structural long-term free cash flow generation and the sustainability of the ongoing accelerated computing investment cycle.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Nvidia's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Compute and Networking


  • Blackwell Production Efficiencies: Execution velocity in scaling the Blackwell architecture platform remains critical. If manufacturing yields optimize faster than baseline forecasts, structural gross margins can confidently sustain the current 75% threshold, providing immediate operational upside compared to standard Trefis margins.

  • Infrastructure Demand Breadth: Data Center operations have successfully split evenly between standard hyperscale providers and the enterprise/sovereign computing segment. Continued commercial traction inside alternative enterprise verticals mitigates individual client concentration risks, building upside protection against potential cloud infrastructure spending corrections.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Nvidia at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Nvidia designs and markets full-stack accelerated computing platforms comprising graphic processors, performance-tuned software libraries, and advanced network interconnect fabrics used across data center enterprise, gaming, visualization, and autonomous systems.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Compute and Networking segment generates the overwhelming majority of operating profitability and remains the foundational pillar of corporate equity valuation.

CUDA Developer Ecosystem Integration

Nvidia holds an industry-wide software moat via its proprietary CUDA programming environment, which millions of software engineers rely on to build artificial intelligence workloads. This extensive software stack locks enterprise clients into Nvidia infrastructure, making competitor hardware migration technically challenging and costly.

Full-Stack Architecture Scalability

The business differentiates itself by delivering complete high-performance computing clusters rather than standalone component chips. Combining performance-optimized graphics engines with proprietary InfiniBand and Spectrum-X networking pipelines allows the organization to defend sector market share and enjoy substantial pricing power.

KEY TRENDS

Global Sovereign Infrastructure Requirements

National governments worldwide are increasingly directing capital toward localized computing environments to handle domestic generative modeling projects independently. This structural sovereign demand serves as an insulation layer against standard private cloud capital expenditure fluctuations.

Data Center Structural Transition

Legacy enterprise computing centers are actively undergoing a permanent architecture transition, reallocating standard central processor hardware budgets into specialized accelerated graphics chips. This secular technological shift underpins long-term volume requirements for next-generation hardware platforms.