NIKE (NKE) Last Update 7/11/26
Related: AEO ANF TPR GAP
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
NIKE
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Net Debt
2.9% $1.36
TOTAL
100%
$46.40
$45.01
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$41.05
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


Trefis Report
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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

NIKE Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Nike Brand Footwear constitutes 64% of the Trefis price estimate for NIKE's stock.
  2. Nike Brand Apparel constitutes 29% of the Trefis price estimate for NIKE's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Nike Q4 2026 Snapshot

NIKE reported fourth quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $11.0 billion, down 1% on a reported basis and down 4% on a currency-neutral basis compared to the prior year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) surged to $0.72, representing a 407% increase, primarily driven by a non-recurring $0.52 benefit related to the expected recovery of unconstitutional IEEPA tariffs. Excluding this tariff recovery, adjusted EPS stood at $0.20, which still beat consensus estimates due to solid wholesale gains and a 3% revenue expansion in North America, helping mitigate double-digit digital and international declines.

Note: Nike's FY'26 ended on May 31, 2026.

One-Time Tariff Windfall Inflates Bottom Line Amid Operational Shifting

The key highlight of NIKE's quarter was a $986 million lift to gross margins stemming from the expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs, pushing reported gross margins up 890 basis points to 49.2%. From a strategic channel perspective, NIKE Direct revenues fell 7% due to a 12% drop in digital sales, while wholesale revenues increased 4% to $6.6 billion, validating management's pivot back to re-engaging with multi-brand retail partners to counteract localized macroeconomic challenges in Greater China and Europe.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

NIKE Brand Geographic and Channel Segments

  • Wholesale Channel Re-engagement: NIKE's intentional pivot back to retail partners like Foot Locker and Dick's Sporting Goods drove a 4% revenue increase to $6.6 billion in Q4. This represents an upside opportunity if wholesale expansion outpaces the slower-margin direct-to-consumer digital channels, stabilizing inventory turnover faster than Trefis currently projects.

  • Greater China Macroeconomic Slowdown: Currency-neutral revenue in Greater China tumbled 17% in Q4, signaling severe localized macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer preferences. Continued weakness poses a significant downside risk to long-term international margin estimates if regional promotional discounting deepens.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for NIKE at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

NIKE designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services worldwide, operating as the largest seller of athletic shoes and apparel through a blend of wholesale accounts and direct-to-consumer retail channels.

SOURCES OF VALUE

NIKE's global footwear dominance remains the primary engine of its corporate valuation and brand equity.

Global Footwear Market Leadership

NIKE remains the undisputed global leader in athletic footwear, commanding massive market share across running, basketball, and lifestyle categories. Its unparalleled product catalog and elite athlete endorsements create an immense global footprint that drives high-volume, recurring revenue streams.

Brand Equity and Pricing Power

The iconic Swoosh brand allows NIKE to maintain premium pricing power even during periods of high inflation and retail discounting. This cultural relevance preserves healthy structural gross margins, shielding the company's long-term profitability from aggressive competitor discounting.

KEY TRENDS

Global Wholesale Marketplace Rebalancing

The broader athletic retail industry is experiencing a correction away from pure direct-to-consumer digital models back toward diversified multi-brand wholesale ecosystems. Consumers are demanding physical, curated trial experiences, forcing brands to rebuild multi-brand partner networks.

Strategic Retrenchment and Direct Course Correction

Management is actively executing a strategic shift away from over-indexing on NIKE Direct and digital channels, which suffered a 12% drop in Q4 2026. By reallocating marketing and inventory to traditional wholesale partners, the company aims to clear product lines and stabilize its supply chain.