Newmont delivered a record-breaking performance in the first quarter of 2026, with revenue surging 45.8% year-over-year to $7.31 billion, comfortably beating analyst estimates of $6.83 billion. Adjusted EPS reached $2.90, a massive 132% increase from $1.25 in Q1 2025 and well ahead of the $2.07 consensus. The exceptional results were primarily fueled by a historic spike in realized gold prices, which averaged $4,900 per ounce compared to $2,944 in the prior-year period. This price leverage allowed Newmont to generate an all-time quarterly record free cash flow of $3.1 billion, despite a 15.6% year-over-year decline in gold production to 1.3 million ounces due to operational disruptions and lower ore grades.
Note: Newmont's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.
Following the successful exhaustion of its previous buyback plan, Newmont's Board of Directors authorized a new $6 billion share repurchase program in April 2026. This move underscores the company's commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders, supported by its record cash flow and a fortified balance sheet that saw long-term debt decrease by 32% year-over-year to $5.08 billion. The company also declared a first-quarter dividend of $0.26 per share, maintaining its disciplined capital allocation framework while continuing to reinvest in sustaining capital for Tier 1 assets like Cadia and Boddington.
Below are key drivers of Newmont's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:
For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Newmont at the top of the page.
Newmont is the world's premier gold producer and a significant producer of copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Following the strategic integration of Newcrest and the divestiture of non-core assets, the company operates a concentrated portfolio of long-life, low-cost "Tier 1" assets across stable mining jurisdictions. Newmont’s business model is designed to maximize free cash flow through the commodity cycle, utilizing a dividend framework and large-scale share repurchases to deliver industry-leading shareholder returns while maintaining a resilient, investment-grade balance sheet.
Newmont’s dominant position is derived from its unmatched scale and its ability to maintain low costs through byproduct credits.
Newmont possesses the largest gold reserves in the sector, totaling approximately 118 million ounces. This longevity provides a decades-long production runway that reduces the pressure for high-cost, speculative M&A, allowing the company to focus on organic growth and brownfield expansions at existing world-class sites.
The company’s significant production of copper and silver serves as a powerful cost offset. In Q1 2026, byproduct credits helped drive gold all-in sustaining costs (AISC) down to $1,029 per ounce on a byproduct basis, providing a massive margin cushion that protects profitability even during periods of operational headwinds or inflationary pressure.
Newmont is increasingly leaning into its copper exposure as part of the global energy transition. With copper production reaching 30,000 tonnes in Q1, the company is positioning itself to benefit from the long-term structural deficit in copper, effectively providing investors with a "green metal" hedge within a traditional gold mining vehicle.
A defining trend for Newmont in 2026 is its pivot toward massive shareholder returns. By authorizing $6 billion in new buybacks and reducing debt to a target of $1.0 billion net cash, management is signaling that it prioritizes value per share over volume growth, a shift that is attracting a broader base of value-oriented institutional investors.
