VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- Gold constitutes 84% of the Trefis price estimate for Newmont Corporation's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- Latest earnings - Q4 2025
For Q4 2025, Newmont Corporation posted adjusted earnings of $2.52 per share and revenue of about $6.82 billion, with gold sales rising roughly 20 % year-over-year on the back of much higher realized prices, while the company produced around 1.45 million gold ounces in the quarter amid planned mine sequencing and delivered strong cash flow, including a record $2.8 billion in Q4 free cash flow as part of a year that saw robust earnings, shareholder returns and a strengthened balance sheet
- Asset sales for optimization
As of early 2026, Newmont Corporation has largely completed its non-core asset divestiture program that was launched in 2024 to streamline its portfolio and focus on Tier 1, high-quality operations: the company has closed sales of the Éléonore, Musselwhite and Cripple Creek & Victor (CC&V) mines, generating about $1.7 billion in cash proceeds so far in 2025, and has also finalized the previously announced sales of the Akyem and Porcupine operations, meaning it has now divested all six of the originally identified non-core assets; total gross proceeds from these divestitures are expected to reach up to ~$4.3 billion, supporting balance-sheet strengthening and capital returns, while Newmont continues to review and optimize its broader portfolio following the integration of its Newcrest acquisition.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of Newmont's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the Trefis price estimate for the company's stock:
North American Mines
- Newmont's Gold Shipments: Newmont's gold shipments declined from 5.9 million ounces in 2021 to 5.4 million ounces in 2023, in part due to a union strike at the Penasquito mine, and lower production due to ongoing upgrades at the Pueblo Viejo mine. However, it increased to 6.5 million ounces in 2024, led by the company's acquisition of Newcrest and higher production from existing mines. Shipments fell to 5.6 million ounces in 2025. We expect shipments to fall before rising in the long term.
- Newmont's Gold EBITDA Margin: Newmont's margins for gold decline from 47% in 2021 to 36% in 2023 due to higher costs and lower production. However, it went up to 40% in 2024 and further to 55% in 2025 due to higher average realized gold prices and higher sales volumes. We expect the metric to grow to about 51% in the long run, driven by higher volumes and synergies from the Newcrest deal.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Newmont Corporation is a gold and copper producer with gold mining operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico. As of the company’s 2025 mineral reserves update, Newmont’s proven and probable gold reserves stood at 118.2 million attributable ounces, down from 134.1 million at the end of 2024 largely due to divestments and depletion; the company also reported 12.5 million attributable tonnes of copper reserves (slightly below prior levels) and about 442 million attributable ounces of silver reserves, reflecting reductions from 2024 totals as a result of asset sales and reclassification.
SOURCES OF VALUE
Gold mining drives value
As of the full-year 2025 update, gold mining remains by far Newmont’s dominant division, with the company reporting total attributable gold production of about 5.9 million ounces and gold sales of roughly $19.3 billion, which made up the vast majority of its $22.7 billion in consolidated revenue, reflecting that gold continues to drive the lion’s share of revenues and profits even as copper, silver and other metals contribute a smaller portion of the total. Gold production in 2025 was slightly lower than the 6.9 million ounces Newmont delivered in 2024, but the segment still accounted for the overwhelming bulk of the company’s sales and financial performance for the year.
KEY TRENDS
Rising demand for gold from emerging economies
Demand for gold is expected to be quite robust from major emerging economies. Rapidly growing middle-class populations and rising incomes in these countries, particularly China and India - the world's largest gold consumers - are expected to result in a sustained jewelry and investment demand for gold.
Higher demand for copper
The long-term demand outlook for copper looks favorable, given the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles, both of which are very copper-intensive. For perspective, EVs use over 2x the copper used by traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Renewable generation such as solar and wind requires over 5x more copper for each installed MW compared to traditional nuclear and fossil fuel-based power generation. Moreover, U.S. plans for a $1.2 trillion revamp of infrastructure should raise the demand outlook and create a favorable market environment for copper.
