Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) Last Update 5/27/26
Related: CME ICE
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
Nasdaq OMX Group
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Market Services
17.7%
$19.93
Other Revenue
1.2%
$1.40
Net Debt
13.1% $14.73
TOTAL
100%
$112.54
$97.81
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$92.09
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
loading revenue data...
loading ebitda data...
loading cash flow data...

RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

Nasdaq OMX Group Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Capital Access Platform constitutes 46% of the Trefis price estimate for Nasdaq OMX Group's stock.
  2. Financial Technology constitutes 35% of the Trefis price estimate for Nasdaq OMX Group's stock.
  3. Market Services constitute 18% of the Trefis price estimate for Nasdaq OMX Group's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Nasdaq delivered a strong performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reporting net revenues of $1.15 billion, which represents an 8% increase year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.72, up 9% compared to the prior-year period. The primary drivers behind this growth were sustained momentum in the Financial Technology division, particularly through the expansion of its SaaS-based regulatory and compliance solutions, alongside increased trading volumes in equity derivatives and fixed income products.

Note: Nasdaq's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q1 FY'26 ended on March 31, 2026.

Expansion of Adenza and Verafin Integration

Nasdaq completed the next phase of its post-merger integration for Adenza, accelerating the rollout of its unified regulatory reporting and risk management software infrastructure. This strategic pivot significantly enhances Nasdaq's positioning as a leading enterprise software provider for Tier-1 global banks. By cross-selling Verafin's anti-financial crime tools into Adenza's existing European banking client base, Nasdaq has effectively unlocked new high-margin, recurring revenue streams that reduce its structural dependence on cyclical transaction-based trading volumes.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Nasdaq's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Financial Technology Services

  • Annualized Recurring Revenue Growth: Nasdaq's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 10% year-over-year, supported by strong institutional demand for compliance and risk infrastructure. If ARR growth sustains this double-digit trajectory, it presents a 5% upside to the current Trefis valuation model due to margin expansion from scalable software models. Conversely, a slowdown in financial sector IT spending poses a downside risk.
  • SaaS Enterprise Migration: The ongoing transition of legacy capital markets clients to Nasdaq's cloud-based SaaS platforms improves client retention and long-term customer lifetime value. Trefis estimates SaaS revenues to comprise 42% of total FinTech revenue by year-end, and outperforming this baseline through faster bank migrations could significantly expand operating multiples.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Nasdaq at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Nasdaq operates a diversified global financial technology company, providing trading, clearing, exchange technology, regulatory software, and public company services across the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Financial Technology and Regulatory Software divisions represent Nasdaq's most valuable segments due to their highly sticky, subscription-based revenue models.

Entrenched Market Infrastructure Dominance

Nasdaq serves as the core technological backbone for global capital markets, maintaining a massive installed base of institutional clients who rely on its transaction and clearing matching engines. This infrastructure creates high switching costs, making it incredibly difficult for alternative venues to displace Nasdaq's core ecosystem.

High-Margin Anti-Financial Crime Ecosystem

Through Verafin and its broader surveillance suite, Nasdaq commands a commanding market share in fraud detection and anti-money laundering software for regional and global banks. These compliance tools boast operating margins exceeding 45%, providing resilient cash flows that cushion the company during periods of depressed macroeconomic trading volumes.

KEY TRENDS

Accelerated AI Deployment in Cloud Surveillance

Financial institutions face increasingly sophisticated market manipulation and cyber threats, driving rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning tools within cloud-based surveillance. Nasdaq has aggressively positioned its software stack to embed predictive AI capabilities, allowing banks to detect anomalous trading patterns in real-time and lowering false-positive compliance alerts.

Strategic De-leveraging and Capital Allocation Plan

Following its major debt-funded acquisitions, Nasdaq is actively executing a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on paying down gross debt to optimize its balance sheet metrics. Simultaneously, management has sustained a progressive dividend growth policy and targeted share repurchases, striking a critical balance between maintaining investment-grade status and returning cash to shareholders.