VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Core DRAM constitutes 77% of the Trefis price estimate for Micron Technology's stock.
2. NAND flash constitutes 20% of the Trefis price estimate for Micron Technology's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Fiscal Q3 2026

Micron Technology reported record fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion, an increase of 346% year-over-year, while non-GAAP EPS surged to $25.11. The extraordinary financial performance was primarily driven by exponential demand for artificial intelligence memory chips, rapid acceleration in data center solid-state drive revenue, and exceptional pricing power in an undersupplied memory market.

Note: Micron Technology's FY'25 ended on August 28, 2025. Q3 FY'26 ended on May 28, 2026.

Execution of Transformational Strategic Customer Agreements

Micron announced the signing of 17 transformational Strategic Customer Agreements securing $22 billion in total cash and financial commitments, including approximately $18 billion in advance cash deposits. These landmark multi-year agreements enhance long-term partnership visibility, provide customers with contracted supply assurance, and effectively reduce the historical structural volatility of memory market cyclicality.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of Micron Technology's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Cloud Memory Business Unit

• Strategic Customer Agreements Capacity: The massive $18 billion in cash deposits secures Micron's ambitious capital expenditure plans, providing a massive liquidity buffer to ramp cutting-edge nodes. If manufacturing optimization exceeds expectations, this upfront liquidity could accelerate free cash flow beyond our current baseline models.


• High Volume HBM4 Shipments: Micron started high-volume shipments of its next-generation HBM4 memory chips built on 1-beta technology. Any supply chain disruptions or operational complexity in ramping greenfield production facilities represents a primary downside risk to segment margins.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Micron Technology at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Micron Technology designs, develops, and manufactures high-performance memory and storage solutions, including DRAM and NAND flash memory, serving the data center, mobile, client, automotive, and industrial markets worldwide.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The Cloud Memory and Data Center divisions represent the largest shares of Micron's structural value, powered by unprecedented enterprise deployment of AI clusters.

Dominance in Next-Generation AI Memory Solutions

Micron's advanced HBM3E and HBM4 memory suites are fully booked through calendar year 2027 with demand extending into 2028, ensuring dominant market capture and highly predictable premium software-like margins.

Explosive Enterprise Solid State Drive Revenue

Data center solid-state drive revenue more than doubled sequentially to surpass $5 billion in a single quarter, demonstrating clear leadership in enterprise storage and establishing a diverse high-margin profit pillar alongside DRAM.

KEY TRENDS

Unprecedented Industrial Server Growth

Global industry server units are projected to grow by high-teens percentages in calendar year 2026, driven by continuous expansion of hyperscale AI data centers alongside a cyclical recovery in traditional enterprise servers.

Substantial Lift in Infrastructure Capital Expenditures

Micron is aggressively raising its fiscal 2026 capital spending to $27 billion and expects fiscal 2027 capex to exceed the mid-$40 billion range, prioritizing greenfield construction and advanced node transitions to satisfy customer demand.