Revenue came in at $16.76 billion for Q2 FY'26, up 8.4% sequentially and up 5.2% year over year, driven by higher average steel selling prices (+4.4% sequentially) and a 4.1% sequential rise in steel shipments. Basic EPS was $0.90, down sharply from $2.35 a year earlier, though last year's figure included a large one time gain from the AM/NS Calvert acquisition. On an adjusted basis, EPS actually rose from $1.32 to $0.90 is still a decline, but EBITDA of $2.06 billion, up 22.9% sequentially and 11% year over year, tells a cleaner story: margins are structurally improving, led by a $155 per tonne EBITDA margin, well above the company's historical average. The main driver was Europe, where EBITDA per tonne jumped to $98 from $70 in Q1, helped by firmer pricing and better utilization as new trade measures kicked in.
Note: ArcelorMittal's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q2 FY'26 ended on June 30, 2026.
The biggest story this quarter is not the earnings miss versus Street estimates, it is Europe. On July 1, 2026, the EU's new Tariff Rate Quota system went into effect alongside the existing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, giving European steelmakers more granular, country specific import limits. Management says order books have already inflected positively, and unusually for the region, shipments are expected to hold steady or rise slightly in Q3 versus Q2, bucking the typical seasonal decline. ArcelorMittal also restarted its long idled Fos blast furnace in France in late July, a concrete sign that the company is betting on a real recovery in European demand rather than just riding a cyclical bounce.
Below are key drivers of ArcelorMittal's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:
For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for ArcelorMittal at the top of the page.
ArcelorMittal is the world's largest integrated steel and mining company outside China, producing flat, long, and tubular steel products alongside its own iron ore through mines in Canada and Liberia. The business spans five reporting segments, North America, Brazil, Europe, Sustainable Solutions, and Mining, plus a large strategic joint venture in India, AMNS India, that is not consolidated but contributes meaningfully to earnings.
Europe is ArcelorMittal's single largest segment by sales, and the direction of European steel pricing and trade policy has an outsized effect on the group's overall profitability.
With flat and long steel operations across Europe, ArcelorMittal has the scale to benefit disproportionately once the new TRQ and CBAM framework restores pricing power in its home market, a structural tailwind smaller regional players cannot access as easily.
Owned iron ore production in Canada and Liberia, with Liberia output up 22% year over year in Q2 on an expanding concentrator ramp up, gives ArcelorMittal a cost cushion against raw material price swings that pure steelmakers lack.
AMNS India posted 31.5% sequential EBITDA growth in Q2, and the venture is pursuing further expansion in one of the world's fastest growing steel markets, giving ArcelorMittal exposure to structural growth without full capital consolidation risk.
Governments in Europe and the US are increasingly using tariffs, quotas, and carbon border adjustments to protect domestic steelmaking. ArcelorMittal is positioned to benefit from this shift given its large European and North American footprint, though the flip side is dependence on policy that could be renegotiated or watered down.
The company has roughly $1.8 billion of incremental EBITDA potential identified across projects in electrical steels, renewables, and capacity expansions in India, Brazil, and Liberia, aimed at capturing demand from grid buildout, EV production, and decarbonization. Execution risk remains, since several of these projects, like the Dunkerque EAF, are not expected to ramp until 2027 or later.
