VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS
- North America constitutes 33% of the Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal's stock.
- Europe constitutes 24% of the Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal's stock.
- India and JVs constitute 15% of the Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal's stock.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
- Q3 2025 Earnings
- ArcelorMittal delivered a resilient set of Q3 2025 results, with revenue of approximately US $15.7 billion, slightly down year-over-year but marginally ahead of expectations. Net income came in at around US $400 million (≈ US $0.50 per share), with adjusted net income of about US $500 million (≈ US $0.62 per share).Despite seasonal headwinds and soft demand, ArcelorMittal pointed to encouraging signs of stabilization and the benefit of its diversified assets and strategic investments for the medium term.
- Trump's tariff policies
- ArcelorMittal’s Q3 2025 results reflected a modest drag from the renewed U.S. tariff measures introduced under the Trump administration, which added uncertainty to global steel trade and softened U.S. demand. The company estimated a full-year impact of about US $150 million from these tariffs, mainly through higher input costs and weaker pricing dynamics in the U.S. and Europe. While the tariffs pressured exports and created some regional over-supply risk, ArcelorMittal’s strong U.S. footprint — particularly at its Alabama facility — helped limit the fallout.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
Below are key drivers of ArcelorMittal's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for ArcelorMittal:
ArcelorMittal North America
- Steel Shipments in North America
: ArcelorMittal's steel shipments in North America increased from 9.6 million tons in 2021 to 10.6 million tons in 2023. It dropped to 10 million tons in 2024. Trefis expects the metric to rise marginally to about 10.5 million tons by 2031. However, if shipments grow to almost 11 million tons, there could be a 5% upside to our price estimate. On the other side, if shipments fall to less than 10 million tons, there could be a 5% downside to our price estimate.
- Average Steel Price in North America: ArcelorMittal's Average Price of steel in North America rose from $702 per ton in 2020 to $1215 in 2022 due to a surge in prices following the war in Ukraine. The metric fell to about $1024 in 2023 and dropped further to $985 in 2024 with lower demand. Trefis expects the metric to come in at about $1100 by 2031. However, if prices grow to about $1,200, there could be a 10% upside to our price estimate.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
ArcelorMittal is currently the largest steel manufacturer in the world and was formed by the merger of steel giants Arcelor and Mittal in 2006. The company has a crude steel production capacity of about 81 million metric tons of steel annually and has operations in 20 countries on four continents.
ArcelorMittal produces a variety of flat products such as sheets and plates and long products, including bars and rods. The firm also produces pipes and tubes for various applications.
SOURCES OF VALUE
The North American segment is the most valuable division of the firm, accounting for around 33% of the company's value. It is valuable for the following reasons:
North America division
North America accounts for about 23% of ArcelorMittal’s global revenue, making it a key geographical region for the company. The division supplies steel to automotive, construction, energy, and manufacturing industries, which are critical to the U.S. and Canadian economies.
