VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

1. Las Vegas Non-Casino Operations (U.S. Hotels, Food & Beverage, Las Vegas Entertainment, Retail and Other) constitute 41% of the Trefis price estimate for MGM Resorts International's stock.
2. Regional Casino Operations constitute 24% of the Trefis price estimate for MGM Resorts International's stock.
3. Las Vegas Casino Operations (U.S. Casinos Table Games, U.S. Slot Games) constitute 24% of the Trefis price estimate for MGM Resorts International's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

MGM Q3 2025 Snapshot

MGM delivered a mixed Q3, with revenue edging up to $4.3 billion but earnings weighed down by a large goodwill impairment and softness on the Las Vegas Strip. Adjusted EBITDA and EPS declined as room-remodel disruptions, weaker gaming hold and softer food & beverage (F&B) trends — including lower restaurant traffic, weaker spend per guest, and reduced banquet and catering volumes — pressured margins. F&B is typically a high-margin, high-volume driver for Strip resorts, so even modest pullbacks can meaningfully weigh on profitability. Strength in MGM China and continued gains in digital gaming helped offset the domestic softness, underscoring the benefits of diversification. Management expects Strip performance to improve as renovations conclude and group demand recovers, but near-term results remain sensitive to regional tourism, convention flow, and gaming trends.

Outlook

Management expects Las Vegas to firm up as room renovations finish and convention calendars normalize, but acknowledges near-term volatility tied to leisure demand and gaming hold. Macau momentum is expected to continue, with MGM China gaining share and benefiting from healthy premium-mass trends. BetMGM is guided to steady growth with improving profitability as marketing efficiency rises. Capital returns remain a priority, with share repurchases continuing alongside disciplined investment in Resorts and digital initiatives. Overall, the company guides to gradual EBITDA improvement in 2025, anchored by Macau strength and easing Strip headwinds, though management continues to flag macro uncertainty and month-to-month variability in U.S. demand.

MGM's plans in New York

MGM is seeking a full commercial casino license in New York to transform its Empire City property in Yonkers into MGM Empire City, a $2.3 billion project featuring expanded gaming with live table games, a BetMGM sportsbook, a 5,000-seat entertainment venue, new restaurants and bars, and upgraded infrastructure including a solar-powered parking garage. If approved, the development is slated for completion by mid-2029, promising thousands of construction and permanent jobs, significant new tax revenue for local governments, and sustainability initiatives such as EV charging and renewable energy features.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of MGM Resorts value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for MGM Resorts:

Macau Casinos

• MGM Macau Casino Revenues: MGM Macau casino revenues have increased considerably in the recent past. In 2019, revenue stood at $2.6 billion, primarily due to robust growth in both VIP and Mass markets driven by MGM Cotai, slightly dampened by a below-average performance at MGM Macau. The metric declined sharply in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic although it recovered strongly over 2023 and 2024. We expect MGM's Macau casino revenues to increase over $3 billion by the end of our forecast period. However, if revenue grows to over $5 billion, there could be a 10% upside to our price estimate. In a bearish scenario, assuming that the Macau Casino industry starts witnessing slow growth and MGM's revenues remain around $2 billion by the end of the forecast period, there could be a downside of approximately 5% to our estimate for MGM's stock. We believe the increasing population of Chinese high net-worth individuals (HNIs) and the various infrastructure developments are likely to stimulate future growth.

Las Vegas Hotels

• Average Daily Rates for Las Vegas Hotels: Average Daily Rates for MGM Hotels in Las Vegas stood at $161 in 2020 and rose to $229 in 2022. The figure stood at $256 in 2023 and $260 in 2024. We estimate that ADRs will grow to about $270 by the end of our forecast period. In case the U.S. economy grows faster than anticipated and the Las Vegas gaming industry gains momentum, we believe there could be a potential upside of around 5% to the Trefis price estimate. This assumes that Average Daily Rates reach around the $290 level by the end of the Trefis forecast period. However, a sluggish recovery in the U.S. and higher hotel vacancy rates could pressure Average Daily Rates and pose a downside of more than 5% to the Trefis price estimate. This scenario will occur if Average Daily Rates remain range-bound under $240 by the end of the forecast period.

For additional details, select a driver above or a division from the interactive Trefis split for MGM Resorts at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

MGM Resorts International (MGM) is a holding company engaged in gaming, hospitality, and entertainment. It primarily owns and operates casino resorts that include gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities in the U.S. and Macau.

Its Las Vegas Strip operating properties consist of the following casino resorts: Aria (including Vdara), Bellagio, The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay (including W Las Vegas and Four Seasons), The Mirage (until its disposition in December 2022), Luxor, New York-New York (including The Park), Excalibur, and Park MGM (including NoMad Las Vegas).

Regional Operations consists of the following casino properties: MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage; Gold Strike Tunica (until its disposition in February 2023), Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park.

The company owns approximately 56% of MGM China, which owns MGM Grand Paradise, the Macau company that owns and operates the MGM Macau and MGM Cotai casino resorts.

Additionally, through a 50% ownership interest, the company is developing an integrated resort in Osaka, Japan. It also has global online gaming operations primarily through consolidated subsidiary LV Lion Holding Limited, “LeoVegas”, and through its 50% ownership interest in BetMGM, LLC, an unconsolidated affiliate.

SOURCES OF VALUE

We believe that Macau operations are the primary source of value for MGM because:

Significantly Higher Volume Than Las Vegas Casinos

Macau offers significantly high gaming revenues as compared to the Las Vegas Strip. Macau gaming revenues are about five times higher than that of the Las Vegas Strip. This significant difference is due to the very high demand for gambling in Macau, which is also the only place in China where gambling is legal. A lot of tourists from nearby countries visit Macau for gambling. The casino business is divided into two categories in Macau: VIP gaming and mass-market gaming. VIP gaming offers high volume but a lower casino holds percentage, while mass-market gaming offers a high hold percentage. The volume of mass-market gaming is picking up in Macau and will benefit MGM.

Higher Proportion of Non-Gaming Revenues In Revenue Mix Compared To Competitors

MGM Resorts offers a complete resort experience to its guests, including high-quality non-gaming amenities such as food and beverages, entertainment, retail outlets, beauty salons, spas, and shows. The firm's dependence on gaming revenue is comparatively lower than its competitors. Non-gaming revenues are affected by the growth of gaming revenues as most gaming customers utilize non-gaming/ancillary services offered at resorts. However, we believe that the firm's non-gaming services attract many convention/show attendees and general tourists, apart from gaming tourists.